At this point, I really have nothing to add. Modeling has been pretty much within a small margin of error on what is going to occur this afternoon through the morning tomorrow. A wobble north or south can still occur, but barring any significant shift things are pretty much set in stone.
Snow will overspread the region from southwest to northeast this afternoon into early evening and become steady (heavy farther south) for periods late evening through mid-morning. Snow will end northwest by early morning and far southeast by Thursday mid afternoon.
The margin of error, while small, is still significant because a subtle shift in any direction (north or south) can impact areas greatly in close range. This is quite common with systems like this. Bring the low north about 15-30 miles, you can double snowfall amounts in areas that are expecting only 1-3 inches. Shift it south, and places that are expected 4-8 inches get 2-4 inches. It is that sharp of a cutoff.
NAM 12KM Snowfall at 12Z:
0 to 2 inches in northwest regions to as much as 9-13 inches southwest into south-central regions. Probably a bit of overestimation due to some sleet at times.
GFS Snowfall at 12Z:
0 to 2 inches in the northwest parts of the region to as much as 9-14 inches in southwest areas. Much like the NAM, a little overdone with some snow in high total areas being sleet accumulation.
Canadian Snowfall 12Z:
Canadian appears to be a smoother, broad brush so things will vary a bit, but 1 to 3 inches in the northwest to 7 to 10 inches in the central and southeast.
This is why a margin of error is still out there. These are not the only models that have been looked at because some show more and some show less, but an aggregate total can be assessed.
I will break it down into 5 zones, northwest, southwest, northeast, southeast, and central. The city center’s of these sections will be Indianapolis (NW), Owensboro, KY (SW), Cambridge, OH (NE), Jackson, KY (SE), and Wilmington, OH (C).
The way it looks in the Northwest zone: 0 to 3 inches, Southwest zone: 3 to 10 inches (sleet potential), Northeast zone: 3 to 8 inches, Southeast zone: 4 to 9 (sleet potential), Central zone: 3 to 7 inches.