Scattered Showers and Storms Thursday, Dry Friday and Saturday

#Rain #Storms #Thursday #OhioValley #Weekend

(Thursday Showers)

Thursday

Wednesday ended pretty nice for most, despite a few stray showers in southern Ohio.  Clouds have thickened and will continue to lower as a disturbance tracks towards the region.  This disturbance will bring scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to the region.  It will not rain all day, but showers could be around at any time during the day.  No severe weather is expected and rain should not be heavy, just a typical Spring disturbance passing through.

(Sunny Saturday)

Saturday

This system will push out by early Friday taking the precipitation with it.  High pressure will push in by Friday evening, setting up a great Saturday.  Both Friday and Saturday should see temperatures in the middle 60s to middle 70s.  Friday skies will gradually clear, but Saturday will be splendid.

(Soggy Sunday)

Sunday

As is usual for Spring, dry weather will be short-lived as another system approaches the area Saturday night and will bring back showers and thunderstorm activity to close out the weekend.  This system will be better organized, so expect more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.  This system will linger into the start of next week.

Unsettled Week, Mild, Big Storms, then Chilly

#WeekAhead #Showers #Dry #Mild #Severe #Chill

(Sunday)

Sunday

I am going to focus today on the weather coming up over the next week to 10 days.  After an active last week, this week will follow suit.

(Monday)

MondayPM

Showers and embedded thunderstorms move in around lunchtime or just there after and continue through late evening before brief high pressure settles in for Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

(Wednesday Night)

WednesdayNight

By afternoon and evening  Wednesday, a warm front will be developing and sliding northward.  Combine this with low pressure to our south and west, repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms will plague the area Wednesday through Saturday.  Overall, this week will be mild and unsettled.  Pretty much a typical mid April weather scenario for the Ohio Valley.

(Next Sunday 500 Flow)

European

500MBFlow

GFS

500MBFlowGFS

One of the tags atop mentioned a severe threat.  Looking at 500 mb mean flow, the chance is legitimate for some powerful thunderstorms.   The GFS is deeper (2nd image); however, the European despite being weaker shows the profiles better.  Trough moving in from the west, combined with low pressure to our south and southwest and high pressure off to the East sets up a scenario for northwest winds aloft, warm southwest flow in the mid levels, and backing winds at the surface.  Being 6.5 to 8 days away things will oscillate and change, but definitely will be watching as this week progresses.

(Extended Range)

CFS

If you recall my April Weather Outlook, I mentioned that a very impressive cool shot should greet the Ohio Valley and eastern half of the country after April 20th, well things shape up that way.  How chilly?  That will be ironed out, but with the vigorous storm next weekend/early following week will allow a strong Canadian air mass to visit the region and make late April likely feel like early to mid March.  The key to take from this event is as long as we keep getting strong chill shots to wipe away any sustained warming pattern, severe weather and flooding rains will remain a threat.  Also, the longer this can keep going on, the better chance to avoid prolonged hot and dry spells this upcoming summer.

Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes All Possible Through AM Friday

#Severe #Wind #Hail #Tornadoes #Flooding #OhioValley

Today’s Outlook:

Day1Wed

Severe weather will be on the uptick today and tomorrow.  Zoning in on Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana, parameters are such that some vicious severe weather will take place.  Closer in on our region, thanks to a stalled front and buoyant moisture flow, convection will likely fire as we approach the late afternoon and evening hours.  This is a conditional outlook because a lot will be determined with maximized surface heating and the strength of the low level jet.  If forecast highs reach the lower to upper 70s in the south and southwestern sections then sufficient heating will be in place to allow for quick convective growth leading to clusters of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.  Damaging winds and large hail will be the main factors, but I cannot rule out a tornado or two from the most discrete cells.  Also, flooding rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm that does develop, severe or not.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Day2Thu

The probability scheme for tomorrow will be more impressive.  With jet energy reaching all the way from the Baja Peninsula, combined with a progressing cold front, and southerly winds backing around high pressure off to the east, the stage will be set for impressive thunderstorms tomorrow.  Hail, wind, and tornadoes will likely occur from eastern Missouri into Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio.  Timing and exact conditions will play a key role in the intensity of severe thunderstorms, but an enhanced or moderate risk of severe weather looms quite likely for parts of the Ohio Valley tomorrow.  Updates will come periodically today, tonight, and tomorrow so keep checking back for the latest.

Be on alert this afternoon and tonight, and on a heightened alert tomorrow for severe weather in the Ohio Valley.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Weather

#Baseball #Weather #Reds #Pirates #Cincinnati

Cincinnati

 

With opening day tomorrow and the Findlay Market Parade less than 24 hours away, I want to share the weather ideas for the kickoff to the 2015 Major League Baseball season.  While today, Sunday, is splendid outside, the weather for the Reds/Pirates series will not be as nice.

Monday Afternoon:

Monday

For Monday, Opening Day, southerly winds will help pump moisture into the region.  Clouds will thicken and lower and bring the threat of scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder.  That is the bad news.  The good news is that the showers will be scattered.  If you are venturing out to the parade and/or the game, bring along the umbrella; however, I do not expect heavy rain.  While it could rain at times the game should be completed.  Expect highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Wednesday Evening:

Wednesday

Good thing the Pirates and Reds are off Tuesday, the traditional day off in the event that true Opening Day was rained out, because showers and thunderstorms appear likely on Tuesday for the region.  The series resumes Wednesday evening for Opening Night.  Unfortunately, showers and thunderstorm activity will be in the region for the second game of the three game set.  Being 78-84 hours out, timing and intensity will change but if you are headed out to Great American Ballpark, bring along the rain gear to be safe.  Expect game time temperatures to be in the lower to middle 60s falling to the upper 50s by game’s end.

Thursday Lunch Hour:

ThursdayMidday

The series finale wraps up Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati and yes, you guessed it, more shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast.  Timing issues will have to be resolved, but I would say that this would be the best chance for the game to be interrupted by rain.  Since the game starts at 12:35 and the fact Cincinnati stays in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh has a short flight to Milwaukee, the teams could wait a while to try to get the game completed.  At this time, I would definitely bring rain gear and be prepared for possible delays.  Temperatures will not be an issue, though, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Prediction:  Pirates take 2 of 3.

However, GO REDLEGS!

Quiet Weekend Leads to Splendid Easter

#Weekend #Cool #Saturday #Terrific #Sunday #Active #NextWeek

Easter

The showers and thunderstorms that have been around for the last couple of days will push out of the region overnight, tonight.  The last possible snowflake or flurry will go with it, as well.  The chance of seeing anything is small, but a flake or two could fall before 8 AM tomorrow.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/events/20150402/

Some severe weather did occur across the region Thursday and Friday.  Of note is the brief tornado that touched down in southwestern Clark County near New Carlisle, a northeast suburb of Dayton.  It was brief and small, but it did occur.  The link above is the summary for the report.  This is why the adage is any thunderstorm can produce a tornado, even if it does not seem like the conditions are favorable for such an event.  These are the situations where one applauds the diligence of the NWS to be alert and prepared for any type of situation.  With so much scorn and hostility of late from the public, image if we did not have the offices and personnel in place to warn of the impending hazard.  Think about it before the next time you hear some ridicule and demean the offices for interrupting programming to warn of the fury of nature.

Saturday:

Saturday

Sunday:

Sunday

Make sure you go out and enjoy Saturday and Easter Sunday this weekend.  Saturday will start off with a mix of clouds and sun, but skies should become fair as the day progresses.  It will be a tad cool with highs in the lower to middle 40s in the north to the lower and middle 50s in the south.  Easter Sunday looks fantastic.  Outside of a few fair weather clouds skies will be sunny and temperatures should range from the upper 50s to middle and upper 60s.  The key word for the weekend is dry, because next week will be unsettled and active.

As next week dons, the pattern will be the rule not the exception over the next couple of weeks.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms for many days and the stronger impulses could lead to severe weather parameters being met.  Through next weekend, everyday will feature a chance of shower and thunderstorm activity.

Enjoy the weekend!

Showers and Thunderstorms Tomorrow through Friday Night, Snow Early Saturday

#Active #Rain #Thunder #Severe #Flood #OhioValley

Enjoy Wednesday because the weather will become quite active over the next two and a half days.  High pressure is in control of the weather currently but will quickly push off to the east by this evening.  A weak warm front will scoot by to the northwest tonight switching winds around to the south.  This will mark the beginning of an increase in moisture.  The second, stronger warm front will then push through the region during the morning hours placing most of the central and southern parts of our area in the warm sector.  Warm and humid conditions will lead to the potential for showers and scattered thunderstorms as the impulse moves through.

The Storm Prediction Center has places parts of the region in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

SEVERE

The best chance will be in the southern and western areas but this does not mean a severe thunderstorm or two could occur elsewhere tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.  Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat.  This should not be a widespread event, but anywhere in the warm sector a few storms could pulse to severe limits.

The bigger story from this system will be the waves of moderate to heavy rainfall.  In totality, five separate waves of low pressure will occur with this storm system.  Here they are in succession:

Wave 1: Thursday middayWave1

Wave 2: Thursday eveningWave2

Wave 3: Friday Morning

Wave3

Wave 4: Friday AfternoonWave4

Wave 5:  Friday Evening

Wave5

Wave 1 is with the secondary warm frontal passage around midday Thursday.  Wave 2 will be with the convection ahead of the cold front.  As the cold front stalls, three pieces of energy will ride along the front sending in widespread showers and embedded thunder.  Wave 3 will come up Friday morning.  Wave 4 will be Friday afternoon as the cold front drags through the area.  Then Wave 5 will come up behind the front with stratiform rain and cooler temperatures.  All in all 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall for most of the region, with possibly higher amounts if a train of thunderstorms develop.  The Weather Prediction Center guidance concurs with the abundant rainfall potential, thus the realistic possibility of flooding and flash flooding for parts of the region from tomorrow afternoon through Friday evening.

1.5 to 3+ inches of rain through AM Saturday:QPFFriday

Flash Flood Scenario in Red Hatched Sections:WPCFlash

If this was not packed enough, there might be some tail end snow showers as the lingering moisture holds on as colder air moves in early Saturday morning.

Last Spit of Snow:

Snow

This will not be anything to worry about, but it will be the end game for any snow until the middle to late part of Fall 2015.  Temperatures Saturday morning will be chilly but should hold right around freezing between 4 and 8 AM.  Cannot rule out a slick spot, but the snow will have no affect besides being in the air.  By mid morning precipitation should come to an end and Saturday looks chilly but dry with brightening skies as the day wears on, not to mention a better looking Easter Sunday.

Be alert over the next 48 to 60 hours across the region.

April Outlook for the Region

#April #Forecast #Active  #Stormy #Severe #Warmer

April

My thoughts for April are as follows:

Rain

April 1-10: Back and forth, but rounding out near normal in temperatures.  Pattern looks active with storminess and the threat for severe weather.  Precipitation above normal; temperatures 1 degree below to 1  degrees above normal.

Thunder

April 11-20:  Active weather continues with frequent storm systems.  Longer warm spells, quick cold shots.  Another case where a couple storm systems will have the threat of severe weather. Precipitation above normal; temperatures 1-3 degrees above normal.

Severe

April 21-30: Generally stormy and above normal temperature profiles.  Cannot rule out a strong cold shot but it will be fleeting with subsequent warm surges.  Severe threat looms.  Precipitation above average; temperatures 1-3 degrees above normal.

 

Warm with Showers, Warmer with Storms

#Warming #Wet #Warmer #Storms #Easter #Weekend

The cold Friday with some snow flurries and the cold Saturday began to transition Sunday when a weak system passed by leading to a period of showers, some that began with some sleet for a period of time at the onset.  That system has now moved off to the East but the pattern we are entering is one of fast track systems that bring chances of precipitation every couple of days.

(Monday Surface Map)

MondaySurface

Monday, today, will be dry with fair skies and seasonal temperatures.

(Tuesday Shower Threat in Northern and Central Areas)

TuesdayShower

However, by late tonight a weak front will pass by kicking off a chance for a few showers for the northern and central portions of the region.  Areas farther south and west will stay dry as the influence of the front will not affect these areas.  This sets up a pleasant Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures comparable to  this time of year.

(Thursday Evening/Friday Morning Showers and Storms)

ThursdayPMFri

The next disturbance, this one with more vigorous energy, will impact the region on Thursday with shower and thunderstorm potential.  This threat will linger into Friday as a cold front moves through opening the door for cooler air to settle in.  A secondary wave could dampen Saturday morning plans, but Easter looks cool and dry.

(Easter Cool but Dry)

EasterCool

After the Easter cool down, it is all Spring from here on out.  I have been mentioning for over a month now that around April 5th (Easter), the transition to full Spring will arrive.

(Pattern Evolution Starting)

Spring

That still looks good and it ups the ante for severe thunderstorm activity and heavy, potentially flooding rainfall as we progress farther into April.

Cold with a Bit of Snow Friday, Just Plain Cold Saturday

#Rain #Ends #Friday #Snow #Saturday #Cold #OhioValley

(A Few Snow Flurries or Showers Friday Evening)

FriPMSnow

The system that brought a surge of warmth Wednesday has been replaced by the return of colder air tonight.  Widespread rain with a few thunderstorms have come to an end for most of the region.  A few light showers are lingering over parts of the eastern and southeastern of the area but those will taper off very soon.  Slightly drier air will start the day for Friday; however, a weak disturbance will come across the region from late afternoon through the late night hours Friday kicking off a chance of a few snow flurries or snow showers.  Coverage will not be great, but do not be alarmed if you happen to see some flakes of snow.

The bigger story will be the impressive cold shot for this time of year.  With average high temperatures now in the lower 50s to around 60 and lows from the lower to upper 30s, Saturday will just be plain cold.

(Saturday Morning Lows)

SatAM

Morning lows will fall into the middle teens to lower 20s under generally clear skies.  So if you have to be up and about early Saturday make sure to dress warm.  Not much recovery will happen Saturday afternoon.

(Saturday Afternoon Highs)

SatPM

It is quite possible a few places in the mountains of West Virginia and eastern and northeastern Ohio stay below freezing for a high on Saturday.  Across western Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana expect lowers 30s to around 40.  All in all, just a cold day.  It will be dry so the sun will make it feel warmer than it is, so a little solace for those tired of the cold.  Do not fret, though, because cold this time of year is short-lived and by Sunday most areas will be back into the middle 40s to middle 50s.  Still chilly, but more tolerable to close out the weekend.

Stay warm this weekend.

 

Severe Weather Stays West, Rain and Thunder Tonight

#Severe #Oklahoma #Missouri #Arkansas #Rain #Thunder #OhioValley

(Severe Reports through 1120 PM Wednesday)

Reports

The first cluster of severe weather, indeed, occurred today across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri.  One fatality has been recorded in Sand Spring, Oklahoma, a suburb west of Tulsa.  This is why in the audio I alluded to the fact that it would be a wise decision to brush up and focus on severe weather because our time will be coming in the near future.  Moore, Oklahoma, which I am sure almost everyone knows about, got hit with a tornado, also.  No rest for the weary for those citizens of the Sooner State.

(Thursday AM Reflection)

ThursAM

Turning the focus back into our area, I do not anticipate severe weather.  A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible, but reaching severe levels look unlikely.  Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely overnight into the morning before tapering off to cold showers and possible snow showers in the afternoon.  As highlighted, the snow will not be a major deal but it still goes to show that snow can and will fall at this time of the year.

(Easter Weekend Hazard)

EasterSnow

In the long range, I do have my eye on the Easter weekend weather.  It is too far out for specifics, but given the regime we have been in, some mischief could get involved, so keep checking back.  At the same time, this is also the target date where I think any last grips of Winter fade away and we go right towards Spring and the increasing possibilities of severe weather.

As always, stay alert with impending weather.

Tune in Daily for A Detailed Forecast for the Whitewater Valley of Indiana and the Miami Valley of Ohio. When you need a forecast here, now, and right now