Halloween Weather, November Cold Blast

#Halloween #ColdorNo #Trough #November #Snow #OhioValley

Yesterday I mentioned how the energy of Tropical Depression 9 would probably cause issues down the road for our sensible weather up our way, and today that remains true.  The depression failed to reach named status, I thought the TPC would hurry up and name it before making landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, but I still believe the conglomerated mess down there will cause issue with timing of the front as we approach the end of October/start of November.

Today’s 12Z runs of the European and GFS, both show a strong blast of cold air coming in just in time for Halloween.

1st Image is the GFS; 2nd Image is the European

Nov1st European192

 

My issue is that on a timing standpoint, in regards to energy sitting down in the Caribbean Sea.  Energy down in that location will help pump a ridge off the southeastern United States and likely slow the progression of the trough by 1.5 to 3 days.  It is insignificant in a long term weather viewpoint, but with Halloween and other activities that weekend, timing is everything.  I expect more energy to feed into the trough off to the west, slowing its progression eastward.  Just as is the case during the hurricane season, when a tropical entity meanders into the western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico, the model can have issues in timing.  I believe this is the case with this one.

It is still over a week out and things do and will change, but I believe that the end of October/first couple days of November will be alright, it is after that where another winter tease will greet the region.  Maybe some of the “white stuff”? Stay tuned!

Hanna To Cause Problems for Our Weather Down the Road

#Tropics #Gulf #Caribbean #UnitedStates

Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Campeche and will likely become Hanna later today.  Initially, this storm will trek eastward across the Yucatan Peninsula and sit in the Caribbean  for several days waiting for a trough to pick it up.

A lot of uncertainty remains; however, I believe the disturbance will sit and fester in the northwest Caribbean and then begin to migrate northward towards Cuba.  It is after this point where things get muddy.  My feeling is that it gets entrained  into a pressing trough the middle of next week and comes up near Florida.  The two questions at this point: Does the trough slow down allowing Hanna to trek more northward and potentially affect the eastern Ohio Valley? Or, does the trough speed up and push Hanna through Cuba, off the east coast of Florida, and then off the East Coast of the United States?

Time will tell, but I do believe Hanna will have an important say so to what our resultant weather will be the middle of next week.  Stay tuned.

Current position of Tropical Depression Nine:

Hanna

 

 

Wet Start, Nice Finish To the Week

#Rain #Cool #Sunny #Mild #OhioWeather

After a cool, wet start to the weekend, Sunday ended up pleasantly cool for most.  By late in the day; however, high clouds were starting to roll back in as another relatively weak cold front approaches the region from the northwest.  This cold front will bring a period of showers and maybe even a rumble of for the start of the work week.

Once this system progresses Eastward, a nice end of the workweek will commence, setting up a nice last weekend of October.  Take advantage of it because the time is growing shorter to enjoy outdoor activities.

Forecast:

Monday- Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Rain Showers from Mid-Late Morning On.  Highs 56-64.  South Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 40%

Monday Night- Cloudy with Periodic Showers and perhaps a rumble of Thunder until Midnight.  South Winds at 10 to 15 mph Becoming West at Less than 10 mph.  Chance of Rain 60%

Tuesday- Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers, Primarily in the Afternoon.  Cooler.  Highs 51-57.  West Winds Becoming Northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of Rain 40%

Tuesday Night- Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers before Midnight.  Lows 39-45.  Northwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 30%

Wednesday-  Cloudy early, Gradual Clearing Throughout the Day.  Cool.  Highs 52-58.

Wednesday Night- Partly Cloudy and Cool.  Scattered Frost Possible.  Lows 33-39.

Thursday- Mostly Sunny and Pleasantly Cool.  Highs 54-62.

Thursday Night- Mostly Clear and Cool.  Lows 34-40.

Friday- Partly to Mostly Sunny.  A Touch Warmer.  Highs 58-64.

Friday Night- Mostly Clear and Cool.  Lows 37-43.

Saturday- Partly to Mostly Sunny and Quite Nice.  Highs 62-68

Saturday Night- Mostly Clear.  Lows 41-45.

Sunday- Mostly Sunny and Continued Quite Nice.  Highs 62-68

Sunday Night- Mostly Clear.  Lows 42-46.

Anticipation Grows as Winter Nears

#Winter 2014 2015  #Forecast  #Ohio Valley  #Mystery

A lot of forecasts are beginning to emerge about what the upcoming winter will be for the region.  Needless to say, I have ideas and thoughts in my head and on paper.  Hints have been given and some details of what should happen have been out, but a more in-depth forecast will be out in the near future.  Stay tuned and keep checking back for the latest.

Here is a look at what NOAA predicts will occur this winter:

Temperature Map:

NOAAWinterOutlook

Precipitation Map:

NOAAWinterPrecip

 

What will ultimately occur?  We will watch together over the next 5-6 months.  Should be some exciting times!

Halloween FirstLook Ohio GFS

#Halloween #FirstLook #Ohio #GFS

The GFS run is out to Halloween right now. As I always state, at Hour 360-384 do not pay much attention to specifics; however, pay attention to the overall pattern. I mentioned how tropical mischief would get involved in the storm that we just had, we still have more tropical mischief to go so this will change things. I choose to show the map today because I believe it shows what will be close to happening.


The highlights:
1) Tropical Mischief in the Gulf Oct 25-29
2) Pressing Trough moving from NW Canada and digging into the central and eastern United States.
3) Another rain event and turning colder.

The time frame will likely fall between the Oct 30th-Nov 2nd time frame. This run shows the storm/rain and trough coming through Oct 29th-30th and clearing out in time for a chilly Halloween.

10371451_810289522336685_6422856911581054728_n

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