Quick Warm Shot With Storms/Wind, then Thanksgiving Antics

#Warm #Windy #Storms #Cold #Thanksgiving #OhioValley

 

A brief respite in the dominant cold pattern will be greeting us for roughly 48 to 60 hours.  The time frame is Saturday into early Monday.  Energy over the western Plains will become more concentrated by Friday evening and start to deepen rapidly as it treks northeastward.  As this storm intensifies, an aggressive warm front will move into the region leading to strong, southerly winds and a surge in the temperatures.  At the same time, a strong cold front will be right on its heels.  Placement of the low could spell the stage for a “triple point axis” in the area leading to the potential of thunderstorms becoming strong and even severe.   These details can be cleared up as the time draws near.

WINDSSUN

(GFS- Winds at 5000 feet indicate winds in excess of 60 knots)

EUROSUN

(European- Winds at 5000 feet indicate winds in excess of 60 knots)

Even without thunderstorms, winds will be of strong importance.  Winds just above the surface will be screaming, so any mixing of these winds down to the surface could lead to some gusts as high as 55 mph.  If I had to hazard a guess, anticipate a Wind Advisory to be in place on Sunday.   By early Monday morning, that strong cold front should be poised to whip through our area switching winds back to the northwest and temperatures dropping throughout the day.

The big question then leads to “What will Thanksgiving be like, weather wise?”  While a week out and a lot of action on the table before then, I believe it is going to be interesting.  Right now, the ECMWF has a low tracking just to our south introducing the threat of snowfall for the area by mid to late day Thanksgiving.  The GFS is quicker, usually is, and delivers light snow Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day, itself.  That will be honed in on later, but it does appear that agreement of some “noise” will be bearing down on the region right before, during, or right after Thanksgiving.  Definitely stay tuned as we get closer.

The Buffalo Massacre…..

#Buffalo #LakeEffect #Snow #Epic #Severe #Nightmare

BuffNews1

I have taken a look at what is going on around Buffalo the last few days, and what will happen for a couple more days is just mind-boggling.  50-70 inches of snow has fallen in bands across the area, and another 20 to 40 inches cold fall before it is all said and done.  Absolutely insane!

NWS Buffalo Snowfall Totals to this Point:

...ERIE COUNTY...
   4 S CHEEKTOWAGA       65.0  1004 AM 11/19  ESTIMATED
   LANCASTER             63.0   944 AM 11/19  NWS EMPLOYEE
   GARDENVILLE           60.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST SENECA           57.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 W WEST SENECA       51.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS
   ELMA                  51.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ORCHARD PARK          48.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WALES CENTER          48.0   946 AM 11/19  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 N HAMBURG           48.0   905 AM 11/19  NWS EMPLOYEE
   4 SSE BUFFALO         45.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS
   2 SSW BLASDELL        44.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS
   4 NW ALDEN            44.0   700 AM 11/19  COCORAHS
   LACKAWANNA            42.0   900 AM 11/19  SOCIAL MEDIA
   1 N LANCASTER         36.0   945 AM 11/19  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 N LANCASTER         25.0  1006 AM 11/19  NWS EMPLOYEE

(More is on the way, too!)

BuffNews2

I had the pleasure of going on a Lake Effect Chase back in 2010 where nearly 4 feet fell, but to potentially get 8 to 9 feet in 4 days, even these community cannot handle that.  Roofs caving in, doors imploding, people stranded for probably a few more days at the minimum, and many more hazards that will be felt is frightening.  Then what is looming Sunday into Monday with rainfall, a localized Buffalo Massacre seems all too realistic.  Add melting snow, periods of rain, then take into account a very high likelihood of blocked drainage systems, one sets up a scenario where the water will have no where to go but sit on top of the massive snow pack; which will only exacerbate problems for the communities that have gotten throttled by snowfall.  Things look scary, if you ask me.

This is a good time to bring up what I preach, NATURE CONTROLS HUMANS, not the other way around.  Today's society believes that humans can control things, and that simply is not true.  If this is the case, then why are communities in and around Buffalo begging and pleading and suffering?  They need help.  Nature simply did what it wanted to do and left thousands trapped in its wrath.  This is why everyone needs to respect nature and respect the people that try to issue, beg, and even HYPE things from time to time about what the power of nature can do.  So many think they are entitled or the rules do not apply to them, but then you see something like this and the same people who scoff, whine, and brush off the warnings or advice are the same people that are dumbfounded, shocked, and begging for help because nature sucker punched them right between the eyes.  Others who curse, denounce, and chastise weather personnel for getting carried away, embellishing, or deceiving the public are now cowering, praying, and vowing, to in the future, always respect and listen to what the potential of Nature's wrath can and will do, when it wants to do it, no questions asked. 

BuffNews3

From a Nature standpoint, this is phenomenal, epic, unprecedented, and simply euphoric to see the power it can bring.  From a Societal standpoint, this is catastrophic, life-altering, life-threatening, and heartbreaking.  Let's hope this does not turn into a Buffalo Massacre.    

(Pictures Courtesy of BuffaloNews.com)

The Storm Has Arrived, Then DANG COLD!

#Snowstorm #Ohio #Indiana #Kentucky #BitterCold

SnowfallMap

As of 9 PM, no real changes are needed that I see fit.  Light drizzle will change over to light snow then become steady as the overnight progresses.  By midday tomorrow 2 to 4 inches of snow will be likely for many areas.  Some areas could receive a bit more and get up to nearly 6 inches, but I think that is the outlier.  Thus, the overall call of 2 to 6 inches will stand.

The issue really surfaces around roads for the morning commute.  I believe the main roads will be slick, but if crews keep up with the snowfall with salt/brine and plowing then they should be in decent shape.  Of more concern are the less traveled roads, side streets deep in a flat, and country roads.  This is where issues could arise for area schools tomorrow.  A tough call will have to be made by 5 or 6 AM on whether to hold school or not in certain areas based on safety for the kids.  Some of these roads will likely be quite treacherous, so plan accordingly.

Once this storm winds down, bitter air will move into the region.  Early highs on Monday will start in the lower 30s but fall into the lower and middle 20s by evening.  Overnight, the one saving grace will be cloud cover and flurries.  Temperatures will fall into the upper single digits to low teens, which is record cold territory.  If skies happen to clear more than anticipated, then a few areas could drop down to the lower single digits.  Will have to keep a close eye on that one.  Nevertheless, it will definitely be winter-like the next few days.

FORECAST:

Tonight- Light Rain Shifting to All Snow West to East.  Snow Accumulations of 1 to 4 inches.  Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  Light Southeast Winds becoming Variable.  Chance of Precipitation 100%

Monday- Snow Ending West to East by Mid Afternoon.  Total Snowfall of 2 to 6 inches.  Early Highs in the Upper 20s to Low 30s then falling in the Afternoon.   Light Winds becoming West and Increasing to 15 to 20 mph with Gusts to 30 mph.  Chance of Snow 100%

Monday Night- Cloudy and Very Cold with Off and On Flurries.  Lows in the Upper Single Digits to Lower Teens.  West Winds at 10 to 20 mph with Gusts to 30 mph.  Wind Chill Values as low as 10 BELOW Zero.  Chance of Snow 60%

Tuesday- Cloudy and Very Cold With Off and On Flurries.  Highs in the Mid Teens to Lower 20s.  West Winds at 10 to 20 mph with Gusts to 30 mph.  Wind Chill Values as low as 10 BELOW Zero.  Chance of Snow 60%

Tuesday Night- Mostly Cloudy and Very Cold.  Scattered Flurries.  Lows in the Upper Single Digits to Lower Teens.  West Winds Becoming Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with Gusts to 30 mph.  Wind Chill Values as low as 10 BELOW Zero.  Chance of Snow 40%

Wednesday- Mostly Cloudy, Not as Cold.  A Chance of Snow Showers in the Afternoon.  Highs in the Upper 20s to Middle 30s.  Chance of Snow 30%

Wednesday Night- Mostly Cloudy and Cold.  Lows in the Middle Teens to Around 20.

Thursday- Partly Cloudy and Cold.  Hit and Miss Flurries.  Highs in the Middle 20s to Lower 30s.

Thursday Night- Becoming Mostly Clear and Cold.  Lows from around 10 to the Middle Teens.

Friday- Mostly Sunny and Cold.  Highs in the Middle 20s to Lower 30s.

Friday Night- Partly Cloudy and Cold.  Lows in the Middle to Upper Teens.

Saturday- Increasing Clouds with a Chance of Rain and/or Snow.  Highs in the Lower to Upper 30s.  Chance of Precipitation 30%

Saturday Night- Mostly Cloudy with a Chance of Rain and/or snow.  Lows in the Upper 20s to Middle 30s.  Chance of Precipitation 40%

Winter Storm Approaching the Region

#Snow #WinterStormWarning #WinterWeatherAdvisory #Ohio #Kentucky #Indiana

WAS

(Purple is Winter Weather Advisory, Pink is Winter Storm Warning)

For the last several days to a week, you have heard me mention that come the end of the weekend into the day on Monday that a moderate snowfall will likely occur across the region.  Based on all the data and analysis this is exactly what is going to occur.  I personally did not buy the 0 to 1 inch, maybe 2 inch calls based on everything I looked at.  I believe 2 to 6 inches of snow will be the primary amounts that will fall across the region between the evening hours today through around Noon, tomorrow.

Thanks to Levi Cowan and his TropicalTidbits page, I can show you the maps of what the model sees as Total Snowfall by the end of this storm.

First is the NAM 12Z that came out just a couple hours ago:

NAMSNOW

This depicts between 2 and 7 inches of snowfall by 1 PM Monday afternoon.  The streaks of purple and deep purple show that 8 inches could fall in a few spots.

Second, the WRF Model from last night:

WRFSnow

The WRF depicts a crazy amount of snow, between 6-12″ for the region.  Yes, that is too much and algorithms can change things, but the point here is that it shows that the storm will have sufficient moisture to work with.

Third, the GFS Model from just about 90 minutes ago:

GFSnow

The GFS has come around to thumping snowfall.  This is the same model that I mentioned a few days ago is always late to the party.  Now, it even shows MORE than I think will fall.  In general, it shows a large area of 5 to potentially 9 inches of snowfall by 1 PM Monday afternoon.

Lastly, the GFS Parallel run, a sister model to the GFS that is in Beta Mode:

GFSParaSnow

This model depicts the more modest totals of 2 to 5 inches of snow with pockets of 6 or 7 inches possible.

Not one model shows 0 or 1 inch.  They all show at least 2 inches of snowfall, with the majority showing 4-7 inches right in the heart of the area.  Thus, why I believe 0 to 1 inch is too light and always would be too light.

In winter weather you always have the “jackpot” banded structured zone, and you have the “rip off zone”.  This will occur with this storm, so some areas will have a sharp increase in snowfall others will have a down tick.  It is very difficult where this sets up, but if a few areas are less than 2 inches, and a few areas are greater than 6 inches then you know if you were under the “rip off” or “jackpot zone”.

My official forecast likes the 2 to 6 inch range for areas from Columbus, Ohio and back southwest into Cincinnati and over into Indiana.  East of Columbus, OH towards far Eastern Ohio and West Virginia, warm air will tug in and keep temperatures warmer thus rainfall and the less likelihood of snow.  There will be snow, but accumulations will be much tougher to come by.

Stay alert and prepared as the first winter storm affects the region late evening through early afternoon tomorrow.

 

 

 

The Latest 12Z GFS Run Catches On For Snow

#Snow #Weekend #Monday #HowMuch #OhioWx

GFSSnow

(Indication of 3-6″ Possible in the Blue, 1-3″ in the Green)

The 12Z GFS (operational, not parallel) comes in with moderate snowfall for SE Indiana, into SW Ohio and literally right up the Interstate 71 corridor to Cleveland. The GFS is usually the last one to catch onto things, such as this.  As mentioned in the Audio update, that the upper level information was leaning towards increasing snowfall for the areas mentioned, and how a little more could fall farther west.  I would be lying if I said I am not shy about true snowfall and accumulations because I am, but it sure fits the bill of moderate to significant snowfall especially for central and eastern sections of the region.  So what do I do?  Keep analyzing and watching data to see how this unfolds.

All I can say is keep checking in as the time gets closer and closer.

The Plot Thickens Sunday into Monday

#Cold #Weekend #Snow #Storm #OhioWx

The plot continues to thicken for an early season snowstorm for most of the Ohio Valley.  As alluded to yesterday, the timing and amount of snow would be hard to nail down at that time frame.  While amounts are still tough, the intrigue continues to grow as latest data shows the scenario playing out.

Not to bore you with a long winded model discussion, but the runs of the new Parallel GFS and European shows moderate to significant snowfall falling for the region, Sunday PM through the day on Monday.  The Canadian model is starting to see the upper level profiles becoming favorable for a moisture-enhanced storms that will likely begin to show up on future modeling.  Even the UKMET looked impressive for decent snowfall amounts.  While the standard Operational GFS is lacking in skill, much like the Canadian, the pieces are beginning to come together that might surprise the less observant by the time Friday and Saturday come calling.

What I will display below and on the Audio is what the modelling suggests:

Euro Panel at 96 Hours TOP and Euro Panel at 120 Hours BOTTOM

Euro96

Euro120

 

The Parallel GFS Snowfall Forecast:

(Pardon the Blur, but the medium Blue to Dark Purple indicates 4 to 8 inches of Snow)

ParallelGFS

As always things will change around between now and Sunday, but today in the weather world can be viewed as a statement day because the continuity among the models are beginning and the message suggests that a respectable snowfall would occur between Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday.  The only question, will they be right?

 

 

Cold Now, Flurries Tomorrow, Sunday Snow, Monday The Big Show?

#Cold #Winter #Flurries #Weekend #SnowEvent

Tuesday started off fantastic did it not?  Then by late morning in the West, early afternoon in the Central, and then by mid-afternoon in the East, it was all over.  Rain moved through and even a few flurries dotted the area as Fall was getting the royal boot by a strong cold front.  We wake up Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A few lucky areas will make the lower 40s, but the evidence is clear, it now feels like Winter in the region.

A subtle disturbance in the mid-levels will work through on Thursday with even colder temperatures.  Although this disturbance is weak, given the cold air in place and the subtle lift involved a few flurries will be possible.  It will feel like a typical January day.  A little more sun can be expected Friday, so that means Friday will be much better, right?  Nope.  Another cold day will be in store as temperatures will struggle to get above freezing in many areas.

The attention then turns to Saturday night into Sunday and on into Monday as northern branch energy and southern branch energy decide what each one wants to do.  Confidence is high that some snow will occur.  The problem is timing and exact location of the two disturbances.  Right here is  classic case why within 2 or 3 days, sometimes even within 24 hours, you hear the phrase “We do not know exactly what will happen.”  It is not because the meteorologist is naive or uneducated, it is because the physics of the atmosphere is in constant chaos.  Trust me, eyes are glued to each set of data that comes in, surface observations are constantly being looked over, and gut intuition is involved.  So what better way to start off mid November with one of these cases.

A little food for thought, let’s say the northern branch energy slows down 6-12 hours, allowing the southern branch to cut a bit more west into the central and eastern Ohio Valley.  That energy will teem up with northern energy rotating south and east and really help juice up the storm with moisture being drawn in and shoved into the cold air.  Hmmmm?  Or let’s say the northern energy speed up 6-12 hours, pushing the southern energy off to the east and leaving the area with only that light dusting to 1 inch, maybe 2.  See the dilemma?

TotalSnow

 

(Areas in the soft to dark blue across southwest, south-central, and southeastern Ohio would be looking at 4-6 inches of snow)

Today the 12Z GFS shows the first option I talked about.  Slow down the northern energy a bit, allow the southern branch to move up west and all of a sudden we have a sizable event on our hands.  As always as a disclaimer and to reiterate about the whole “We do not know exactly what will happen, so keep checking back”, applies in full force in this situation.

The simple fact that the threat of moderate snowfall in November is on the table should be excitement enough!

Will We Just Stay in Winter Come Tuesday?

#Arctic #Cold #Snow #Teleconnections #OhioValley #Weather

COLDLONG

Get out and enjoy Monday as this could be the last day in quite a while that is anything remotely “warm”.  Highs will climb into the middle 50s to lower 60s, but once the cold front sweeps through on Veteran’s Day, it sure looks like it is all over with.

Trying to put it into words that most can understand, this set up has been absent due to the natural cyclical changes in our atmosphere, oceans, and solar output.  Some that have been following me for the last 10-15 years know I started banging this drum back in the late 1990s to early and mid 2000s that changes to a colder regime were coming and most of this generation will not believe or deny it until it is upon us.  This winter might be another massive slap in the face to what reality should become over the next 30 to 40 years.  A cooler, stormier, dreary pattern and a longer, colder winter regime.

What is happening this winter, and what I believe were hints of this happening over the last 5-10 years, results in high latitude blocking patterns that force Arctic intrusions into the mid-latitudes and then stick around, and stick around for long periods.  So often the last 30 years were quick cold snaps then moderation.  Now, if these blocking patterns hold true, and each day and each run only fortifies this belief, once cold air gets established it will not flee it will only be reinforced over and over and over again.  I can understand the “hype” or “disbelief” because most have not been around to witness such a pattern, but it really looks like this is the way we are going.  This winter will likely become the rule, not the exception.

A quick look at the teleconnections, AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North American Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation), EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation, and the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) all favor long, and at times severe cold into the central and eastern part of the United States.  Add to the fact of the west based Modoki El Nino, then some serious winter times could be in the offing.  Just think, next weekend, a winter storm should cross the central Plains into the northern Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, blanketing the region with snowfall.

Hype, maybe?  Or better yet, how about the education and countless hours researching these things to come up with a plausible reason for why the weather wants to work the way it does.

Get Ready!

 

Arctic Shot, Then Another, and Another, and Another

#Cold #VeryCold #Snow #Colder #MoreCold #Brutal

Yes, the word cold is easily overused in the caption, but when it is potentially going to be record setting then it has its justifiable place.  As discussed in the Audio Update and in other posts, I mentioned towards the end of October that November 12th would be the turning point for the pattern to become entrenched with cold after the yo-yo start to month, is working out to be as precise as one can get when it comes to the weather.  The error I have had would not being COLD enough.  There is that word again, COLD.

Model guidance continues to drop the hammer on the region next Tuesday into Wednesday, then sustain the cold for the next 4-5 days.  The problem is no warm up is coming after this shot, only an even more brutal shot around November 17th-18th.  The fact that this time frame is now within ten days emphasizes that this pattern is very legit.

Let’s take two morning lows over the next 10 days.  First next Thursday:

AMTHUlow

(Lows in the lower to middle 20s)

We then sustain that cold until a bigger beast comes in around the 17th-18th, so here are the lows for Tuesday, November 18th:

LowsNov18

 

(Lows in the Upper Single Digits to Middle Teens)

Those are lower than average lows in middle January and here we are in the middle of November.  OUCH! QUIT IT!  As with any weather prognostication, some changes will occur but even if this is a bit too bold, the temperatures will still likely be in the middle to upper 10s for lows.  The bottom line here is simple, it is going to be extremely cold for this time of year.

Now the next issue is snowfall.  I have been pretty confident that actual snowfall that could stick and accumulate would come soon after November 15th.  Specifics were never given and will not be given here, but the bottom line is that given the upwind changes coming that a system would cross the region when cold enough to drop snowfall on the region.  The GFS run this afternoon backs up that belief as seen below:

TOTALSNOW

Not a great amount, but a couple inches, nevertheless.

I feel eager today so not only do you get the text and visual, I also have done an Audio Update to go along with it so everyone can get the whole spectra of what is going on for our weather.

Exciting times if you ask me!

 

Showers Push Back In, Then Cold Path Begins

#Rain #Cool #Weekend #Snow #ArcticChill #OhioWx

Cold

The cold front that slipped through early this morning brought a reprieve to the rain but the clouds remained thick.  Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will push northeast tonight and bring showers back to the central and southern sections as the day progresses on Thursday.  In tandem, a secondary cold front will push through late Thursday night or early Friday morning taking the precipitation with it and introducing cooler air for the region.  Expect a dry but cool Friday.

Another quick moving piece of energy will move through on Saturday bringing with it another threat of rain showers, possibly ending as a few snow showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  A brief lull in the activity will be had for Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday before a very strong cold front and aggressive trough blasts through the region sending temperature values to way below normal levels for the middle of next week and continue through the following weekend.  Enjoy the relative “warmth” while it lasts.

Text Forecast:

Tonight- Isolated Showers Possible by Late Evening, then Scattered Showers after Midnight (Central and Eastern Sections).  Lows 43-49. Southwest Winds at 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of Rain 30%

Thursday- Periods of Showers, Central and Eastern Sections (Possible Thunderstorm Eastern Sections), Becoming Breezy.  Highs 48-56.  Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph, Becoming West at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of Rain 80%

Thursday Night- Showers through Evening, Possible Flakes before Ending, Cooler.  Lows 34-39.  West Winds becoming Northwest at 10 to 20 mph, with Gusts to 30 mph.  Chance of Precipitation 70%

Friday- Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Cool.  Breezy.  Highs 41-47. Northwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph, Gusts to 30 mph.

Friday Night- Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Cold.  Lows 29-35.  Winds Northwest, Switching to the Southwest near Dawn at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday- Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers Developing in the Afternoon.  Highs 45-51. Chance of Rain 50%

Saturday Night- Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Rain Showers, Mixing with Snow Showers at times before Ending.  Lows 27-33.

Sunday- Mostly Cloudy and Cool.  Highs 40-46.

Sunday Night- Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Lows 26-32.

Monday- Partly Cloudy and Seasonally Cool.  Highs 49-55.

Monday Night- Mostly Cloudy and Becoming Windy.  Lows 36-42.

Tuesday- Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers.  Windy. Turning Sharply Colder Late.  Highs 43-53.  Chance of Rain 40%

Tuesday Night- Mostly Cloudy, A chance of Rain and Snow Showers, Continued Breezy.  Cold.  Lows 25-31.

Wednesday- Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Windy, and Very Cold.  Highs 29-35.

Wednesday Night- Partly Cloudy and Very Cold.  Lows 19-25.

 

Tune in Daily for A Detailed Forecast for the Whitewater Valley of Indiana and the Miami Valley of Ohio. When you need a forecast here, now, and right now