As promised I am going to go ahead and post the track and accumulation for this impending storm. Still, at this time, I am not sold on the exact track and exact amounts, but confidence is high that some areas will get moderate to heavy snowfall. On the reverse side of the coin, I have stated clearly that far southern Ohio would be right on the line of the rain/ice/snow line. As we end Friday and head into Saturday that is still where I believe the line will be. Many other forecasts and outlets have released their ideas, and that is great, but the issue I have had is knowing where that exact line will be. If that takes some muster off the excitement, then I will take it because I am about being as most correct as possible and not being out first and have to change. I am stubborn by nature and in storms like this, being stubborn might be the right way to go because things are still changing.
I know others have had ideas, but those are their ideas, not mine. Every opinion and idea, if backed with sound reason and information, should be respected and not criticized. Weather is in constant flux and chaos, that is why things change. So value their opinions and ideas, not trashed and ridiculed.
First will be the track that I believe will happen with this storm:
Jonesboro, Arkansas to Clarksville, Tennessee to Richmond, Kentucky to south of Charleston, WV to Baltimore, Maryland.
I think the High Pressure over the Quebec Province is still being underplayed a bit that has some models shooting the low too far north too quickly. What does this mean in terms of rain/snow/ice line?
Rain will be the predominant feature south of the Ohio River. North of the Ohio River I believe rain will mix for a period of time with the sleet, freezing rain, and snow offsetting the time frame of pure liquid. Once north of the I-275 northbound outer belt, brief rainfall is possible but a longer period of snow and ice can be expected. Once 30-40 miles north of the Ohio River and points east and northeast snow and ice will be the main precipitation type and once again north of I-70 snowfall will be the dominant rule.
My best guess estimate is that anywhere from 0-3 inches can fall in far southern Ohio and Indiana with a mix of rain, sleet, and freezing rain. Once out of far southern Ohio, the difference between light accumulations to heavy accumulations can be as little as 20 miles. The precipice here is that anywhere from 3-8 inches can fall between the south side of Dayton, Ohio to the northern parts of Miami and Darke Counties. Then farther north snow could be geared as high as a foot-plus and points west and east. I hope you can listen to the audio because I will go more in depth with this scenario.