FREEZE WATCH for Sunday Morning

#FreezeWATCH #SundayMorning #Ohio #Indiana #Kentucky

By and large we have avoided the killing freeze for the month of October.  While a few frost advisories have been issued, most of the area avoided hard frosts an/or freezes thanks to winds and clouds.  This Saturday night and Sunday morning our luck will run out.  With clearing skies and light winds,  temperatures will drop into the middle and upper 20s for several hours killing any vegetation left outside.  Gardens, plants, or other vegetation that you might want to hold onto should be protected; otherwise, they will likely be killed by Sunday morning.  The growing season has essentially ended for most of the region, but one should rush tasks to completion over the next 48 hours to avoid loss or damage to any crops.

FREEZEWATCH

 

Trick or Treat for Halloween Weather?

#Halloween #Weather #Cold #Rain #Wind #Snow

The warmth of a few days ago has vanished.  Cooler air has resided and even colder air is looming as we progress into Halloween and the weekend.  A storm system will pass through the area tomorrow and rain showers will envelop the region as Friday progresses.  A strong cold front will whisk through the area by the evening hours leading to the coldest air of the season, so far.

Now the big issue has been mention of the “S” word.   Yes, some snowflakes and a few snow showers can mix in at times late Friday night into AM Saturday morning, but the snow will not be a big deal.  The big deal will be the cold crash that arrives with the front.

Trick or Treat Forecast-

5 PM-9PM Tonight- Mostly Cloudy.  A sprinkle possible.  Temperatures in the middle to upper 40s on a calm to light west wind.

Overnight- Rain showers developing West to East late.  Lows in the Upper 30s to Middle 40s.  Winds light out of the West and Southwest. Chance of Rain 60%

Friday- Rain showers likely.  Chilly and Becoming Breezy in the Afternoon.  Highs In the Middle 40s to Lower 50s, then falling by Late Afternoon.  Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph becoming West and increasing to 15 to 25 mph.   Chance of Rain 80%

Friday 5 PM- 9PM- On and Off Showers.  Windy and Cold.  Temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind Chill Readings in the 30s.  Winds from the West and Northwest at 15 to 25 mph, with Gusts to 35 mph.

Friday Night- On and Off Showers, Some Mixing with Snowflakes overnight.  Cold and Windy.  Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s.  Winds from the Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with Gusts to 35 mph.  Chance of Precipitation 60%

Saturday- Mostly Cloudy and Cold with Scattered Rain showers and Flurries through noon.  Windy.  Highs in the Upper 30s to Middle 40s.  North winds at 10 to 20 mph with Gusts to 30 mph.  Chance of Precipitation 40%

Winter 2014-2015 Outlook In the Works

#OhioValley #Winter #Outlook #Snow #Temperature #Precipitation

Over the last several years I have always been asked to throw my winter predictions out there for all to see.  Surprisingly, I have done quite well because winter is one of the toughest seasons to predict because of the massive volatility of our atmosphere.  Outside of tanking terribly in the 2011-2012 winter, most predictions have come out pretty close when all was said and done.

Needless to say, I am in the process of finalizing a few things for the outlook and will be published in the near future.  Tell you friends, family, and anyone you want that the Winter 2014-2015  outlook is coming soon!

Cold and Snow, then Mild, OH MY!

#Rain #Snow #Cold #November #Mild

Today continues the idea of snowflakes for most of the region Friday night into Saturday.  Not a whole lot of change, but with it being the first event for most of the region it can create some stir for the public.  Last winter was brutal, so the mention of cold and snow have some cringing thinking what lies ahead the next 4 to 5 months.

Both the NAM and GFS agree with snow for Friday night into Saturday morning as seen below:

NAM:

NAMSNOWSAT

GFS:

SATSNOW

Based on the amount of snow and temperatures, total snow could be a few tenths of an inch up to an inch.  Plus, with the time of day the snow will fall do not be shocked if a light covering covers super cooled objects and car tops.  Roads and other main stream areas will not have to worry about accumulation.

The next question many ask: “So does this mean winter is here to stay?”.  That answer is “No”.  We are still in fall and the pendulum of weather variables will remain high.  The best way to describe the weather for the next few weeks will be “YO-YO”.  Up and down, cold and warm, sun then storms.  Patterns like these are active, so do not expect many “dry” days in the coming couple of weeks but do expect some nice days squeezed in between storm systems.

We typically get a period of Indian Summer weather and this should be the case, again.  Overall, though, the players are on the field aligning for a rough winter for 2014-2015.

Latest 8-14 day Guidance for November 5th-11th:

Trends

 

Enjoy it while it lasts.

Say It Isn’t SNOW!

#Halloween #Cold #Windy #Snow #snOMG #Freeze

I have been telling everyone that snowflakes would fly for the last several days for this coming weekend, while some forecasts had 40s and sunshine on Saturday with rain showers ending by Friday evening.  Well, well…the NWS has changed their course as I knew they would.  What was SUNNY and 43-48 for Saturday is now, the following for Halloween night and the 1st of November, Saturday.

Friday- Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night- Rain showers likely before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 1am and 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday- A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The reason is the entrainment from once Hurricane Ana in the Central Pacific will help dig the trough over this part of the country and open the door for cold temperatures and lingering moisture.  Snow will not be a big deal, but seeing snow will excite some and enrage others.  Needless to say, ‘SAY IT ISN’T SNOW!’

Here is the GFS 850 mb temperature (roughly 5000 feet) on Saturday morning.  Temperatures solidly below freezing, with precipitation.

GFSSATSNOW

Next is the 500 mb (roughly 18000 feet) at the same time.  Very vigorous upper level low and lift, squeezing out all available moisture.

500mb

 

Welcome to SNovember.

 

 

Rain and Storms Approaching

#Ohio #Indiana #Rain #Storms #Tuesday

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move west to east as we head into the afternoon hours.  A few thunderstorms could be aggressive at times, bringing down some strong winds.  The threat is low, but the threat of a couple strong storms are there.  Just be alert as these storms approach your specific location.

The SPC has the eastern half of Ohio in a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

SevTues

Warm Monday, Wet Tuesday, Then Cooler

#Warm #Windy #Wet #Cooler

Who enjoyed the weekend?  If I could see the show of hands, I would venture to say that almost everyone raised their hands.  Temperatures in the upper 60s to low and mid 70s on Saturday, followed by middle 60s to around 70 on Sunday is hard to argue for better weather to close out October.  All things must come to an end though, as a storm system will bear down on the region over the next 48 hours.

An aggressive warm front will push through the region Monday morning bringing with it unseasonably mild air on strong southerly winds.  Temperatures will jump quickly from the lower and middle 40s to the lower 70s to near 80 by Monday afternoon.  Skies will start out mostly sunny but high clouds will begin to spread in from the west by afternoon signaling the approach of a strong cold front.  This cold front will bring a good chance for showers and some thunderstorms for the day Tuesday.  Tuesday will still be relatively mild, but cooler air will rush in late in the day, signalling the return to fall by the middle of the week.

Forecast-

Monday- Mostly Sunny in the Morning.  High Clouds increasing in the Afternoon.  Warm and Breezy.  Highs 71-81.  East Winds Becoming South and Increasing to 15 to 25 mph with Gusts to 35 mph by Late Afternoon.

Monday Night- Increasing Clouds and Mild.  A Chance of Showers in the West late.  Breezy.  Lows 57-65.  South Winds becoming Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with Gusts to 25 mph.  Chance of Rain 30%

Tuesday- Showers and Thunderstorms Becoming Likely Region Wide.  Continued Mild and Breezy.  Highs 68-76.  Southwest Winds at 15 to 25 mph, Switching to the West Late.  Chance of Rain 80%

Tuesday Night- Showers and Thunderstorms Tapering Off West to East.  Becoming Cooler.  Lows 45-51.  West Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 60%

Wednesday- Partly Cloudy and Cooler.  Highs 52-58.

Wednesday Night- Mostly Clear and Cool.  Lows 34-40.

Thursday- Partly Cloudy.  Possible Sprinkles.  Highs 51-57.

Thursday Night- Mostly Cloudy with Possible Sprinkles.  Lows 38-44.

Friday- Mostly Cloudy and Cool.  A Chance of Showers.  Highs 46-52.  Chance of Rain 40%

Friday Night- Mostly Cloudy and Cold.  Possible Sprinkles and Flurries.  Lows 27-35.

Saturday- Variably Cloudy and Chilly.  Intermittent Flurries and Sprinkles. Highs 39-45.

Saturday Night- Partly Cloudy and Cold.  Killing Freeze Likely.  Lows 25-31.

Sunday- Mostly Sunny and Chilly. Highs 40-46.

Sunday Night- Clear and Cold. Lows 26-32.

Get Out and Enjoy The Weekend, Time is Limited

#Weekend #Nice #Pleasant #FewLeft #OhioWx

Make sure you get out a bit this weekend because the chances of having weekends like this are fading quickly.   A weak disturbance is crossing the region, but subtle clouds and a few light showers was all that occurred this morning to our west.  Another benign system will cross the area tomorrow afternoon with a subtle increase in clouds but no precipitation is expected.   Basically, we are setting up a great weekend so go out and enjoy it.  I am sure one or two more weekends will be “okay”, but it is hard to expect we will see another weekend like this for the rest of 2014.

Forecast-

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy, Not as Cold.  Lows 40-47.  Southwest Winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Pleasant.  Highs 63-69. Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night- Becoming Mostly Clear, A Touch Cooler.  Lows 39-45.  Winds Switching to the Northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday- Mostly Sunny and Pleasant.  Highs 61-67.

Sunday Night- Mostly Clear.  Lows 42-48.

Halloween Weather, November Cold Blast

#Halloween #ColdorNo #Trough #November #Snow #OhioValley

Yesterday I mentioned how the energy of Tropical Depression 9 would probably cause issues down the road for our sensible weather up our way, and today that remains true.  The depression failed to reach named status, I thought the TPC would hurry up and name it before making landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, but I still believe the conglomerated mess down there will cause issue with timing of the front as we approach the end of October/start of November.

Today’s 12Z runs of the European and GFS, both show a strong blast of cold air coming in just in time for Halloween.

1st Image is the GFS; 2nd Image is the European

Nov1st European192

 

My issue is that on a timing standpoint, in regards to energy sitting down in the Caribbean Sea.  Energy down in that location will help pump a ridge off the southeastern United States and likely slow the progression of the trough by 1.5 to 3 days.  It is insignificant in a long term weather viewpoint, but with Halloween and other activities that weekend, timing is everything.  I expect more energy to feed into the trough off to the west, slowing its progression eastward.  Just as is the case during the hurricane season, when a tropical entity meanders into the western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico, the model can have issues in timing.  I believe this is the case with this one.

It is still over a week out and things do and will change, but I believe that the end of October/first couple days of November will be alright, it is after that where another winter tease will greet the region.  Maybe some of the “white stuff”? Stay tuned!

Tune in Daily for A Detailed Forecast for the Whitewater Valley of Indiana and the Miami Valley of Ohio. When you need a forecast here, now, and right now