The Forecast for the Independence Holiday

#IndependenceDay #Friday #Saturday #Sunday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

July4th

Some uncertainty exists for the forecast region over the holiday weekend.  A stalled front will be parked over the Commonwealth of Kentucky.  When low pressure waves move along this front some oscillation will occur which throws questions into whether areas will stay dry or other areas will see rain.

KY

 

The eastern two-thirds of Kentucky is under a Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening as rain and thunderstorms falls across the state tomorrow, Friday.  South of the front, storms exist pretty much the entire weekend.  North of the front, dry and comfortable weather can be felt for the weekend.  North of the Ohio River, promise is a bit higher for periods of dry weather and once north of the Interstate 70 corridor things looks quite delightful for the actual Independence Holiday, itself.

Forecast:

West:

Friday- Hit and Miss Storms throughout the Day.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Chance of Rain 30%

Saturday- Isolated Storms, primarily South.  Highs from Around 80 to the Lower 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Chance of Rain 20%

Sunday- Isolated Storms, Mainly in the Afternoon.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Chance of Rain 20%

South:

Friday- Scattered Thunderstorms, Some with Heavy Rainfall.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Chance of Rain 50%

Saturday- Scattered Thunderstorms.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Chance of Rain 50%

Sunday- Hit and Miss Thunderstorms, Mainly in the Afternoon.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Chance of Rain 30%

Central:

Friday- Hit and Miss Showers and Thunderstorms.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows from Around 60 to the Lower 60s.  Chance of Rain 30%

Saturday- Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows from Around 60 to the Lower 60s.  Chance of Rain 20%

Sunday- Partly Sunny.  A Stray Storm Possible.  Highs from Around 80 to the Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Chance of Rain 10%

North:

Friday- Isolated Thunderstorms.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  Chance of Rain 20%

Saturday- Partly Sunny.  A Stray Storm Possible.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  Chance of Rain 10%

Sunday- Mostly Sunny and Splendid.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Chance of Rain 0%

East:

Friday- Hit and Miss Showers and Thunderstorms.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Chance of Rain 30%

Saturday- Hit and Miss Showers and Thunderstorms.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Chance of Rain 30%

Sunday- Partly Sunny.  A Stray Thunderstorm Possible.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Chance of Rain 10%

 

The Forecast for Wednesday, July 1st, 2015

#July #Wednesday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

July

It is hard to believe that 2015 is already halfway over.  July marks the middle of meteorological summer and it will not feel like July on this the first day of the month.

Front

Yet another cold front has slipped to the southern parts of the region keeping high temperatures out of the area.  At the same time, areas north of the front will have a bit less humidity and experience east and northeast breezes further enhancing the “not like July” day.  Depending on the southward extent of the cold front, areas on Wednesday especially in northern reaches will stay dry and comfortable with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.  With all the water and humidity that has been around, it will feel pretty good tomorrow.  The one issue I have is left over boundaries.  Too many times in the last several years, forecasts that call for sunshine and no threat of rain often experience a build up of clouds and sprinkles.  The pattern we are in keeps me from saying 100% dry for areas in central, southern, and eastern sections on Wednesday.

SPC

The severe threat looks minimal today, but I do like the general thunderstorm outlook map.  It might be a bit north, but the fact they believe a stray storm or two can pop in central Indiana and Ohio then points south is why I will keep a chance of a storm in those areas.  Farther south, closer to the front, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will be possible and a few could be strong.  Overall, a nice start to July temperature wise, but still unsettled for parts of the region.

Forecast:

West: A Mix of Clouds and Sun.  A Slight Chance of a Shower or Thunderstorm (Mainly South).  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s. Winds Light and Variable becoming Southeast Late.  Chance of Rain 20%

South: Hit and Miss Showers and Thunderstorms Early AM, then Hit and Miss Thunderstorms in the Afternoon.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  West and Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 40%

Central: A Mix of Clouds and Sunshine.  A Slight Chance for a Shower or Thunderstorm.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  West Winds at Less then 10 mph becoming Variable.  Chance of Rain 20%

North: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Nice.  A Stray Storm Possible (Mainly South).  Highs in the Lower to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  West Winds at Less than 10 mph.  Chance of Rain 10%

East: A Mix of Clouds and Sunshine.  A Slight Chance for a Shower or Thunderstorm.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  West Winds at Less than 10 mph.  Chance of Rain 20%

 

The Forecast for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

#Derecho #Tuesday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Tuesday

It would be a disservice if I did not reminisce a bit about the powerful derecho that obliterated parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia and to the Atlantic Seaboard three years ago today (June 29, 2012).  I remember getting up and running some errands between 11:30 AM and about 2:30 PM.  What began as a night pulling my hair out on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning trying to figure out why the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF were so far apart on temperatures for the following Friday, I had a discussion with one of my colleagues and said the following statement to him: “Something is either very wrong with the models, or something big and violent is going to happen on Friday”.  Wednesday and Thursday went by without much fanfare or chatter.  I am sure there was some “talk” but it was pretty hush.  Most know I have no problems saying what I think is going to happen with the weather, be it right, wrong, or otherwise but even I was shy to say it in a loud, oratory way that Friday could be very serious for parts of the region.

Derecho

As you can see by the map, the SPC even was not really honing in on what could be a major player the following day.  Still, something was not right in the weather.  To have a model say thunderstorms and middle 80s, another say isolated storms and middle 90s, and yet another model say lower to middle 100s and dry something was brewing in the atmosphere.

Derecho1

The SPC had upgraded the risk to slight across the northern parts of Indiana and Ohio but most went to bed that night yawning and not thinking much of anything except another dry and scorching Friday was in store.  That night I was up late and still trying to figure out why the models were at such large odds with each other.  I, again, said the same thing I had said two nights previous that either the models are terrible or something violent is going to happen.

Friday started out boring but early on the morning Friday a decaying MCV was sitting over the Midwest.  Excessive heat was funneling to the south of the vortex signature across western Illinois and eastern Iowa with enough cold pooling and short wave energy to really crank this convective system it it wanted to explode.

Derecho2

By the mid to late morning hours, SPC was getting more confident that an MCS would re-energize and sweep from Iowa to the Virginia Capes that Friday afternoon and evening.  That is until around 11 AM central time when the beast awoke, exploded, and annihilated everything in its path.  To this day I still seethe in some anger as a television anchor in the state of Ohio broke in and said that the line was beginning to weaken and should die out.  Why in the world would you say that when you have 95+ degree heat fueling the storm’s energy right along the boundary of a intense short wave.

Derecho3

While I still think the SPC was slow to heightened the risk it did so in reactionary form as this derecho was hauling at over 60 mph in forward speed.  The cold pool aloft brought down winds anywhere from 55 to 90 mph over much of northern Indiana, northwest, western, central, southern, and southeastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and the Virginias.  Billions of dollars in damages were assessed, power was out to millions, and even some very serious injuries occurred.

Derecho4

With the storm reports, you can tell it was a very hectic day from northern Illinois through northwestern and northern and eastern Indiana, most of Ohio, northeast Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, on to the Atlantic shoreline.  To this date, I still am disappointed at people who complain and moan when weather coverage takes over television and radio.  This is the one element that controls and affects everyone’s life.  It might not be “you” this time, but when it is “your” turn do you or do you not want to be informed of life-threatening weather?  So next time an event like this occurs, and it will, reflect back on June 29, 2012 before complaining that the weather is not going to do much because up until it started, 99% of the public had no clue what was about to unfold and mere hours later, the same whiners are whining they were not prepared or complaining because it was hot and they could not watch TV that night.  It does not work that way.  Respect Nature, do not mock it.

By the way the forecast for Tuesday is similar for the region.

Partly to Mostly Cloudy Skies will dominate.  Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will be about, primarily in the Afternoon.  A Few Storms could be Strong.  With ample moisture, some Thunderstorms will produce Heavy Rainfall.  Highs should range from the Lower 70s in the North to the Lower 80s in the South.  Lows will generally range from the Lower to Upper 60s.  Winds will be out of the South and Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of Rain 60%

The Forecast for Monday, June 29th, 2015

#SEVERE #Flood #Monday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Monday

The relatively nice close to the weekend is quickly coming to an end as we go right back into an unsettled weather pattern that will feature showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis.

Monday

 

A warm front and an associated area of low pressure will move into the western region later tonight and cross the entire area to start off the work week.  By late Monday night and into early Tuesday, the cold front will sweep through.  However, right on its feels is another area of low pressure and disturbed weather to bring the threat of more precipitation.  Like I have been saying since middle to late May, get used to this pattern.

Rain

The continual concern for many across the Ohio Valley is that of flooding.  With saturated soils, persistent heavy rainfall, and the frequency of systems sweeping across our area it is very hard to dry out.  That is why flooding concerns will have to be raised once again.  It is getting to the point where many areas do not need torrential rainfall or long periods of soaking rain for the water to start to pond in fields, yards, and poor drainage areas.  As depicted from the map, another half inch up to two and one half inches of rainfall will be possible by daybreak Tuesday morning.  So if you live near creeks, streams, rivers, or other waterways that have been running high or have had flood issues recently, be prepared to take action.  Same issues arise for those living in poor drainage areas.

SEVERE

The severe threat tomorrow exists for most of the eastern two-thirds of the area.  With modest heating occurring during the day combined with frontal forcing will give rise to scattered strong to intense convection with some thunderstorms potentially reaching severe limits.  Wind will be the main concern, but with cold pools aloft and enough shear involved damaging hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.  As I am sure most of you can repeat what I am about to say given the weather the last few weeks, keep an eye to the sky and check with media outlets if severe weather impacts your area.

Forecast:

West: Showers and a Chance of Thunderstorms Overnight, then Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Throughout the Day.  An Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Possible.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  South Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 60%

South: An Isolated Shower or Storm Possible Overnight, then Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Likely by Late Morning.  A Few Storms may be Severe.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  South and Southwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of Rain 60%

Central: An Isolated Shower or Storm Possible Overnight. then Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Likely by Late Morning.  A Few Storms may be Severe.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  South and Southwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of Rain 60%

North: An Isolated Shower to Storm Possible Overnight, then Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Like by Late Morning.  Isolated Severe Storms Possible.  Highs in the Lower to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  South and Southeast Winds at 10 to 20 mph becoming West Late.  Chance of Rain 60%

East: Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms by Mid Afternoon.  A Few Storms May Be Severe.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  South Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 50%

 

The Forecast for Sunday, June 28th, 2015

#Sunday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Sunday

The cool weather of the last day or so will continue into Sunday.  As a cold front came through Saturday it took the warmth and humid weather with it.  Amazing what a strong cold front at the end of June can do.  Sunday will feature well below normal temperatures, but lingering leftover moisture from a strong low over the Great Lakes will allow some early showers across the northern and eastern sections of the area.  So for the last weekend day in June expect a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning north and east, but a great day in the south and west.  The slightly good news, brief high pressure will squeeze in between the departing low over the Great Lakes to New England and the developing low and front forming over the Great Plains and western Midwest to give the entire region a dry 12-18 hour period.

Sunday

The SPC tomorrow is void of any severe weather in our area; however, by Monday morning general thunderstorms will be back into the western region and this will then spread across the area to start the workweek.  That rinse and repeat pattern will be hard at work again.  Bottom line, enjoy a brief calm in weather Sunday because it all starts again on Monday.

Forecast:

West: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Sensational during the day, then Increasing Clouds and a Threat of Showers and Possible Thunderstorms after Midnight.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  Northwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph becoming South late.  Chance of Rain 40%

South: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Sensational.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  Northwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph becoming Variable Late.  Chance of Rain 0%

Central: Sprinkles and Drizzle Early AM, then Gradual Clearing.  Delightful Temperatures.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 70s.  Lows in the Middle 50s to Around 60.  Northwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph becoming West Late.  Chance of Rain 20%

North: Sprinkles and Drizzle Early AM, then Gradual Clearing.  Delightful Temperatures.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 70s.  Lows in the Middle 50s to Around 60.  Northwest Winds at 15 to 25 mph becoming West Late.  Chance of Rain 20%

East: Cloudy with Scattered Showers through Midday.  Then Hit and Miss Sprinkles and Drizzle.  Quite Cool.  Highs in the Lower to Upper 60s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 50s.  Southwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph becoming West Late. Chance of Rain 40%

The Forecast for Friday, June 26th, 2015

#RAIN #Flood #Friday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Friday

Thursday featured showers and thunderstorms for the region as an area of low pressure trekked across the region.  Another wave of energy will approach from the west on Friday along the stationary boundary located in far southern Indiana and Kentucky.  South of the front very warm and humid air will lead to intense convection, some potentially severe, while north of the front more widespread, soaking rain and less intense convection will occur.  The bottom line, more rain is set to impact the Ohio Valley.

RAIN

 

The latest North American Mesoscale model (NAM) really paints a wet scenario for most of Indiana, Ohio, into western Pennsylvania and points south into central Kentucky and northern and western West Virginia.  Now, I believe it is overdone to a degree but with a stalled boundary, tremendous buoyant air running and then forced over a front, any available moisture will be squeezed out in the form of heavy to torrential rainfall.  The highest amounts on this graph show 4, 5, and even up to 6 inches of rain.  I will cut that in half, but the key component to take away from this data is that the risk of flooding and training thunderstorms will be possible.  If we go back to Bill last weekend and the several days of scattered, intense storms over the last two weeks it will not take much to create flood concerns in favored spots.

SEVEREFRI

The severe threat will be minimal north of the front thanks to more clouds, cooler temperatures, and east and northeast winds.  South of the front with warmer air, buoyant moisture, a mid level warm layer to allow for some sun and southerly winds, convection will be favorable in these areas to kick off an intense or severe storm.  The SPC map depiction allows one to clearly define the front.  If I can use US 50, that would be where the front will meander and be the crucial dividing line between severe storms, and generalized thunderstorms.  Bottom line, a busy Friday is in store for the region.

FORECAST:

West: Hit and Miss Storms Overnight into the Morning, then Showers and Thunderstorms Likely in the Afternoon.  A Strong Storm is Possible, Along with Heavy Rainfall.  Humid.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Light and Variable Winds becoming East.  Chance of Rain 70%

South: Scattered Thunderstorm Tonight (Severe Potential), then Scattered Thunderstorms Tomorrow (Severe Potential).  Heavy Rainfall possible in any Thunderstorm.  Warm and Humid.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  South and Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 60%

Central: Isolated Storms Overnight, then Showers and Thunderstorms Becoming Likely in the Afternoon.  A Strong Storm is Possible, Along with Heavy Rainfall.  Humid.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  East Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 70%

North: Isolated Storms Overnight, then Showers and Thunderstorms Becoming Likely in the Afternoon.  Humid. Heavy Rainfall Possible.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 70s.  Lows from Around 60 to the Lower 60s.  East Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 70%

East: Hit and Miss Thunderstorms Overnight, then Showers and Thunderstorms Likely by Late Afternoon.  A Strong Storm is Possible, Along with Heavy Rainfall.  Humid.  Highs in the Middle 70s to Around 80.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Light and Variable Winds becoming East.  Chance of Rain 60%

The Forecast for Wednesday, June 24th, 2015

#Wednesday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Wednesday

A glorified cold front has swept through most of the region late this afternoon into the evening.  In its wake a refreshing breath of fresh air has settled in for the night and Wednesday.  With it being late June, we should all take advantage of a warm, less humid day.  Why do I say this?  Well, by late afternoon in the south and then gradually Wednesday evening into Thursday morning that cold front will move back north as a warm front.  With the warm front, back comes the thunderstorms and oppressive humidity.

Wednesday

As the map depicts, high pressure settles in briefly for Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies, warm, but comfortable conditions.  However, off to the southwest, the next low pressure and wave of energy will enter the region from southwest to northeast by late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours and get us back into the pattern we have grown accustom to the last few weeks.

Severe1

The severe threat will be coming back into the region by late Wednesday night as the warm front bears down on the Ohio Valley.  The afternoon hours of Wednesday will be fine, but strong warm fronts at night in the summer are quite aggressive so a noisy night could commence in the west.

Forecast:

West: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Comfortable.  A Chance of  Thunderstorms After Midnight.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Light Northeast Winds becoming Southeast Late.  Chance of Rain 30%

South: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Comfortable.  A Slight Chance of Thunderstorms After Midnight.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Northeast Winds at Less than 10 mph becoming Southeast Late.  Chance of Rain 20%

Central: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Comfortable. A Chance of Thunderstorms After Midnight.  Highs from Around 80 to the Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle to Upper 60s.  Light Northeast Winds becoming Variable.  Chance of Rain 30%

North: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Comfortable.  A Chance of Thunderstorms After Midnight.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Light Northwest Winds becoming Variable.  Chance of Rain 30%

East: Partly to Mostly Sunny and Comfortable.  A Slight Chance of Thunderstorms After Midnight.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Light Northwest Winds becoming Variable.  Chance of Rain 20%

The Forecast for Tuesday, June 23rd, 2015

#SEVERE #Tuesday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Tuesday

An evolving mesoscale convective system (MCS) has been ongoing across Illinois and moving into Indiana late this evening.  A significant tornado occurred earlier in northern Illinois as this system erupted around sunset.  A strong short wave is currently sliding through the region.  The interaction of the energy and very buoyant air is fueling strong to severe thunderstorms.  These storms are super cellular in nature, meaning, that they are rotating so a tornadic threat looms for areas, primarily in the far northern sections.  The hardest question to answer is how far will they make it southeast.  The farther south one lies, the greater the capping environment is in place which ultimately hinders convective development.

AMTues

The SPC has an enhanced area of severe weather in Illinois and northwestern Indiana with a slight risk running congruent to the Interstate 70 corridor.  While the threat for severe weather diminishes its way south, MCSs at night fueled by very moist air and an intensifying low level jet can keep these storms cranking for hours.  Best piece of advice is to stay alert of the weather in your area tonight.

A cold front will slide through Tuesday midday through evening from northwest to southeast bringing in less humid air and slightly cooler temperatures from the Ohio River north.  The front will slow down and stall across the Commonwealth of Kentucky so storm chances will continue in southern zones.

RADAR

RADAR caption as of 12:10 AM Tuesday morning shows the intense thunderstorms from northern and north-central Illinois into northwestern and west central Indiana.  These storms should move east and southeast overnight.  Again, these storms will not weaken much with the environmental conditions in place; however, the farther south thanks to a strong capping inversion the convection will wane and wait for the forcing mechanism of the cold front to push farther south.

Stay alert overnight for these intense thunderstorms.

Forecast:

West: Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in the Far Northern Reaches Overnight, Otherwise Partly Cloudy with Isolated Thunderstorms.  Warm and Humid.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s. Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph Becoming North.  Chance of Rain 70% (N) 20% (Elsewhere)

South: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Quite Warm and Humid.  Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms from Midday Onward.  Highs in the Upper 80s to Lower 90s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  West and Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph Becoming North Late.  Chance of Rain 50%

Central: Strong to Severe Thunderstorms In Far Northern Reaches Overnight, Otherwise Partly Cloudy with Scattered Thunderstorms.  Warm and Humid.  Highs in the Lower to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  West and Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph Becoming North Late.  Chance of Rain 70% (N) 40% (Elsewhere)

North:  Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Overnight, then A Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms until Midday.  Highs from Around 80 to the Middle 80s.  Lows in the Upper 50s to Lower 60s.  West Winds at 10 to 20 mph becoming North in the Afternoon.  Chance of Rain 70%

East: Partly Cloudy with Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in the Afternoon.  Warm and Quite Humid.  Highs in the Middle 80s to Around 90.  Lows in the Lower to Middle 60s.  Southwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph becoming North Late.  Chance of Rain 60%

The Forecast for Monday, June 22nd, 2015

#SEVERE #Monday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Monday

Warm and humid weather will open the new work week.  With the humidity around, left over boundaries, and an oscillating front poised to retreat as a warm front today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the region.  Pretty much the same thing that has been said the last week to ten days.  So during the morning hours expect hazy sunshine, humid conditions giving way to afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  Temperatures will remain a bit above normal, but nothing unusual for this time of year.  Last week, unfortunately, some were touting major heat and record temperatures in the middle 90s to perhaps low 100s, but if one studies the weather globally and uses common sense, the pattern was not dictating anything as such.  Yes, it is warm and humid, even oppressively humid but right there lies the answer to say “NO” to excessive heat.  Abundant rainfall and moisture would curb heat, so we get stuck with what is “typical summer” for this part of the country.  Low 80s to around 90 and humid.  Simple as that.

Monday

Severe weather will be taken with a big of heightened awareness Monday.  While the brunt will be to the northern and western sections, it is with stronger wording that intense to extreme convection could occur.  As in any case with severe weather everything has to line up and come together, but if it does, it could be quite intense.  Strong advection from the lifting warm front in combination with remnant boundaries across the western Great Lakes and Midwest will feed on itself tomorrow afternoon.  With increasing wind gradients near the surface to the mid levels and an approaching and deepening short wave ample ingredients are in place for severe thunderstorm development.  Throw all of this into a very moist, buoyant air  mass if the match is lit then the storms will rapidly fire and become severe tomorrow afternoon and evening and spread southeast with respect to time tomorrow night into the early hours of Tuesday morning.  Keep tabs on the weather for this potential moderate event.

Forecast:

West: Partly to Mostly Sunny, Quite Warm and Very Humid.  Isolated Storms Possible Early, then Hit and Miss Thunderstorms in the Afternoon.  Severe Storms Possible Late.  Highs in the Middle 80s to Around 90.  Lows from Around 70 to the Middle 70s.  South and Southeast Winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of Rain 30%

South: Partly to Mostly Sunny, Quite Warm and Very Humid.  Isolated Storms Possible Early, then Isolated Thunderstorms in the Afternoon.  Locally Strong Storms Possible.  Highs in the Middle 80s to Around 90.  Lows from Around 70 to the Middle 70s.  Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 20%

Central: Partly to Mostly Sunny, Warm and Very Humid.  Isolated Storms Possible In the Afternoon.  Locally Strong Storms Possible.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 80s.  Lows from Around 70 to the Middle 70s.  South and Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 20%

North: Partly to Mostly Sunny, Warm and Very Humid.  Isolated Storms Possible in the Afternoon.  Aggressive Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late.  Highs in the Lower to Upper 80s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  South and Southwest Winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of Rain 30%

East: Partly to Mostly Sunny. Warm and Very Humid.  Isolated Storms in the Afternoon.  Locally Strong Storms Possible.  Highs in the Middle to Upper 80s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  South and Southwest Winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of Rain 20%

The Forecast for Saturday, June 20th, 2015

#Flood #Bill #Saturday #Temperature #Precipitation #Indiana #Kentucky #Ohio #WestVirginia

Saturday

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill will plague the southern and central parts of the region on Saturday.  It appears the track will be across far southern Indiana, northern Kentucky, into far southern Ohio.  Approximately 75 to 100 miles, north and south of the track, is where the best rainfall will occur.  Steady, soaking rain should last for several hours.  So if you have plans for Saturday, adjust accordingly.  With the recent episodes of heavy rain, flooding could become an issue.  Flash Flood Watches have been hoisted from central Kentucky, up into southern Indiana, and southern Ohio.  If you live near rivers, creeks, streams, or poor drainage areas keep tabs in case they run out of their banks.  The low pressure will crawl east of the region by late Saturday evening bringing an end to the steady rainfall; however, with the humidity in place and a front sill plaguing the region scattered showers and thunderstorms will still remain a threat.

Rain

Rainfall, in general, will range from 0.5 inches to 2 inches with local higher amounts possible.  This will likely put most, if not all, areas at normal June totals if not above.

Severe

Severe weather should be minimal here due to the thick clouds and persistent rainfall.  However, isolated strong storms will be possible right along and east of the low pressure.  A key to look towards for Father’s Day is the next wave of energy over the Midwest.  So Father’s Day afternoon could be noisy.  Check back tomorrow for a more detailed update.

Forecast:

West: Periods of Rain with Embedded Thunderstorms.  Rainfall could be Heavy at Times.  Rain Tapering off by Mid-Afternoon.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Middle 80s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  East and Southeast Winds at 5 to 15 mph becoming Northwest late.  Chance of Rain 80%

South: Occasional Rain with Embedded Thunderstorms.  Rainfall could be Heavy at Times. Rain Tapering off by Late Afternoon.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  South and Southeast Winds at 5 to 15 mph becoming Southwest late.  Chance of Rain 80%

Central: Occasional Rain with Embedded Thunderstorms.  Rainfall could be Heavy at Times.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  South and Southeast Winds at 5 to 15 mph becoming Southwest late.  Chance of Rain 80%

North: Rain Likely through Mid-Afternoon.  Rainfall could be Heavy at Times.  Highs in the Upper 70s to Lower 80s.  Lows in the Upper 60s to Lower 70s.  South and Southeast Winds at 5 to 15 mph becoming West late.  Chance of Rain 60%

East: Hit and Miss Showers Early, the Rain Likely by Midday with Embedded Thunderstorms.  Some Storms Could Be Strong.  Highs from Around 80 to the Middle 80s.  Lows in the Middle 60s to Around 70.  South and Southeast Winds at Less than 10 mph.  Chance of Rain 70%