#Active #Rain #Thunder #Severe #Flood #OhioValley
Enjoy Wednesday because the weather will become quite active over the next two and a half days. High pressure is in control of the weather currently but will quickly push off to the east by this evening. A weak warm front will scoot by to the northwest tonight switching winds around to the south. This will mark the beginning of an increase in moisture. The second, stronger warm front will then push through the region during the morning hours placing most of the central and southern parts of our area in the warm sector. Warm and humid conditions will lead to the potential for showers and scattered thunderstorms as the impulse moves through.
The Storm Prediction Center has places parts of the region in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.
The best chance will be in the southern and western areas but this does not mean a severe thunderstorm or two could occur elsewhere tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat. This should not be a widespread event, but anywhere in the warm sector a few storms could pulse to severe limits.
The bigger story from this system will be the waves of moderate to heavy rainfall. In totality, five separate waves of low pressure will occur with this storm system. Here they are in succession:
Wave 1: Thursday midday
Wave 2: Thursday evening
Wave 3: Friday Morning
Wave 4: Friday Afternoon
Wave 5: Friday Evening
Wave 1 is with the secondary warm frontal passage around midday Thursday. Wave 2 will be with the convection ahead of the cold front. As the cold front stalls, three pieces of energy will ride along the front sending in widespread showers and embedded thunder. Wave 3 will come up Friday morning. Wave 4 will be Friday afternoon as the cold front drags through the area. Then Wave 5 will come up behind the front with stratiform rain and cooler temperatures. All in all 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall for most of the region, with possibly higher amounts if a train of thunderstorms develop. The Weather Prediction Center guidance concurs with the abundant rainfall potential, thus the realistic possibility of flooding and flash flooding for parts of the region from tomorrow afternoon through Friday evening.
1.5 to 3+ inches of rain through AM Saturday:
Flash Flood Scenario in Red Hatched Sections:
If this was not packed enough, there might be some tail end snow showers as the lingering moisture holds on as colder air moves in early Saturday morning.
Last Spit of Snow:
This will not be anything to worry about, but it will be the end game for any snow until the middle to late part of Fall 2015. Temperatures Saturday morning will be chilly but should hold right around freezing between 4 and 8 AM. Cannot rule out a slick spot, but the snow will have no affect besides being in the air. By mid morning precipitation should come to an end and Saturday looks chilly but dry with brightening skies as the day wears on, not to mention a better looking Easter Sunday.
Be alert over the next 48 to 60 hours across the region.