Models are still trying to figure out what to do with the storm for Christmas Eve. People jump on the wagon, then jump off the wagon, only to want to get back on when it is pretty likely that the storm will do what they want it to do. The problem? Nature does not care what he, she, you, or I want; it will do what it wants on its own. With the amount of energy around and the players on the field, the solution is no clearer today than it was yesterday or the day before.
Case in point, the GFS for today at 12Z. Most know that anything is possible when it comes to the pure unknown of weather and the atmosphere. Things sometimes pop right out of the blue and catch us all off guard. Other times, an eleventh hour switch occurs and the low takes a different track. So what am I talking about with the 12Z GFS. I do not agree with having 2 separate storms develop and intensify rapidly in succession in approximately one day’s time.
Here are a myriad of images:
Monday 7 AM:
Low pressure organizing in the Gulf.
Monday 7 PM:
Low 1 meanders off the coast of Wilmington, North Carolina with another low innocently hanging back around Wichita Falls, Texas.
Tuesday 7 AM:
Low 1 is now 250 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and the second low is strengthening around Paducah, Kentucky.
Tuesday 7 PM:
The first low is now wandering out in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, while the second low is deepening impressively near Toledo, Ohio.
To me this scenario is quite unlikely. A known GFS error is to bundle too much energy in the first system and leave less energy for the second low to work with. While the second low does get its act together, I believe this output is a feedback error and causing the second low to not handle the characteristics correctly. I believe this bias is taking over. One point I do want to make, I do think the GFS is catching on because it allows the second low to have a Gulf connection. At times, the GFS simply takes all its eggs and puts it into the first storm and completely chokes the second one but I wonder if this two low idea will actually split the difference and come back to the deeper, stronger low that some have been talking about. Right here is why the exact track and intensity of the storm and the amount of precipitation it will bring cannot be answered at this time. It is still 5 to 6 days out and things will continue to change.