Latest Update For Sunday’s Storm

#Storm #Track #Total #Change #Ohio #Indiana #Kentucky

As promised I am going to go ahead and post the track and accumulation for this impending storm.  Still, at this time, I am not sold on the exact track and exact amounts, but confidence is high that some areas will get moderate to heavy snowfall.  On the reverse side of the coin, I have stated clearly that far southern Ohio would be right on the line of the rain/ice/snow line.  As we end Friday and head into Saturday that is still where I believe the line will be.   Many other forecasts and outlets have released their ideas, and that is great, but the issue I have had is knowing where that exact line will be.  If that takes some muster off the excitement, then I will take it because I am about being as most correct as possible and not being out first and have to change.  I am stubborn by nature and in storms like this, being stubborn might be the right way to go because things are still changing.

GFS:

GFS00ZSAT

CANADIAN:

CANADA00ZSAT

EUROPEAN:

Euro00ZSAT

I know others have had ideas, but those are their ideas, not mine.  Every opinion and idea, if backed with sound reason and information, should be respected and not criticized.  Weather is in constant flux and chaos, that is why things change.  So value their opinions and ideas, not trashed and ridiculed.

First will be the track that I believe will happen with this storm:

Jonesboro, Arkansas to Clarksville, Tennessee to Richmond, Kentucky to south of Charleston, WV to Baltimore, Maryland.

I think the High Pressure over the Quebec Province is still being underplayed a bit that has some models shooting the low too far north too quickly.  What does this mean in terms of rain/snow/ice line?

Rain will be the predominant feature south of the Ohio River.  North of the Ohio River I believe rain will mix for a period of time with the sleet, freezing rain, and snow offsetting the time frame of pure liquid.  Once north of the I-275 northbound outer belt, brief rainfall is possible but a longer period of snow and ice can be expected.  Once 30-40 miles north of the Ohio River and points east and northeast snow and ice will be the main precipitation type and once again north of I-70 snowfall will be the dominant rule.

My best guess estimate is that anywhere from 0-3 inches can fall in far southern Ohio and Indiana with a mix of rain, sleet, and freezing rain.  Once out of far southern Ohio, the difference between light accumulations to heavy accumulations can be as little as 20 miles.  The precipice here is that anywhere from 3-8 inches can fall between the south side of Dayton, Ohio to the northern parts of Miami and Darke Counties.  Then farther north snow could be geared as high as a foot-plus and points west and east.  I hope you can listen to the audio because I will go more in depth with this scenario.

 

Latest Update on the Winter Storm for Sunday

#Snow #Track #Amounts #Ohio #Indiana #Kentucky #Changes

The term ‘patience is a virtue’ is one that tests even the most patient of people when it comes to winter storms.  Massive chatter and opinions are running wild to what this storm will ultimately end up doing.  Snowfall totals have been thrown out by many reliable sources, Winter Storm Watches have been put into effect, and even the novice weather enthusiast is getting revved up with all the anticipation of getting the first “potentially significant” winter storm of the 2014-2015 winter for the region.

So where do things stand as of the early afternoon hours on Friday?  A lot of consternation began to circulate earlier this morning when the NAM model cut north and the panic button was pushed.  The issue with the NAM is it has been notoriously bad with winter storms until we get within 30 hours.  We are not there yet.  If one takes the time and effort to look at the entire body of work, it can clearly be seen that a significant error occurred when initializing.  The track was bizarre and then it tried to correct itself once into Kentucky.  So if you merely looked at the snowfall map, some probably got discouraged extremely fast.

Next came the GFS.  Early on in the run, the GFS wanted to do the same thing the NAM did.  That is cut it far north; however, the GFS caught its error being a global model and corrected sooner.  The low track went from south central Texas into Arkansas into southeast Missouri then it got shunted due east to Charleston, West Virginia.  Very tough for a low to move that east with a gradual deepening storm, but it self-corrected its error and tried to smooth out what I believe is the ultimate path.

Following the GFS came the Canadian model.  The Canadian made the most logical sense.  It takes the low from Texas into Arkansas then through far northern Tennessee, into south-central and eastern Kentucky into West Virginia.  A northeast track that 99% of mid-latitude cyclones take.  On its heels came the European, and much like the Canadian, it too tracks the low in similar fashion.

Here are the 4 models and the low placement in 72 hours which is 7 AM Monday Morning:

NAM:

NAM72

GFS:

GFS72

CANADIAN:

CAN72

EUROPEAN:

EURO72

By no means does this mean any one track is correct, but at the end point with respect to timing, the lows favor a farther south solution closer to the Canadian and European.  On a personal note, I am throwing the NAM out for the most part.  Time will tell.

This also leads into snowfall totals.  I have numbers pretty much ready to go, but I will wait until late evening to go live with them.  I want to see the 18Z and 00Z come out and see if the NAM corrects itself and compare the placement of that to the GFS, Canadian, and European.  Confidence remains high; however, of significant snowfall for most of the region starting late Saturday night and ending late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Bugs, Fixes & Mobile Issues

Good Evening OVFC!
One of your programmers here again. I am not sure what to make of the possibility of Snow! Yes the “S” Word looks to be a good possibility according to Josh! Exciting times ahead for this weekend, stay tuned to Josh’s updates! Oh, isn’t there a Football game this weekend too? Be safe if you are in an area affected with winter weather and are out traveling meeting friends. Be safe!

Now onto my main purpose for posting. I have noted everything mentioned by you in the way of suggestions and issues you are having with the site. Due to your suggestions I found a very large critical error in our Mobile Theme. I will implement the fix tonight.

Now, with a simple visit you will be able to see the “Subscribe” feature, Facebook’s “Like” box, as well as the Twitter “Follow” and much more. Of course the layout is going to change some, to meet these needs. You will now just see a row of posts, scrolling down, page select, scrolling further all mentioned above!

When you arrive to the site. Click the latest post name. Listen to the Audio, Read the text. Scroll down and see the new features.
Some of you may not see all of this and will have to click the more 3 dashed button to the right of our name at the top. After clicking more, scroll down and click desktop site. You will now see the added features.

Thank you for your input! I am not a mobile user per se.

Now that I have spent some time reading your replies I had to investigate Mobile and why some of our stats were so low for it. I think you and Josh will like this transition. As one of his programmers I can say that the whole crew is very excited and look forward to bringing you a whole new website experience in the very near future. Keep your suggestions coming!

Additionally I would like to bring focus to Josh‘s post last night regarding the Audio portion as it was a bit vague. Do you have a business and would you like to place a Business Card Ad or a Website you would like to advertise? Many new features including a facelift to the site, business ads and so much more are coming soon!
Please feel free to make any suggestions to make the site as user friendly as possible. We are here for you!
~JC~

how-wordpress-fixes-pingback-bug-in-3-5-1

The Plot Thickens For Super Bowl “SnowDay” For the Region

#Sunday #Snow #OhioValley #Intriguing #Watching #Updates

The drama and anticipation for a potential significant snowstorm for Super Bowl Sunday continues to grow.  Yesterday models came around to the idea that modest to heavy snowfall would be possible Sunday into early Monday for the region.  As last night came in, the GFS, Canadian, and European once again came out suggestive of high snowfall totals.  I wanted to wait until Thursday or Friday before even starting to use words such as “high snowfall”, “significant”, “major”, etc when it comes to snow because we are all too familiar with how systems behave in our area.  Hopes run high, pandemonium ensues, feelings and emotions escalate, then crash and burn as the track of the system changes within 24 to 36 hours and the overwhelming majority is left in a “snowless” depression.

So what am I saying?  With the storm being within 60 hours now, confidence begins to rise to the level where snowfall will fall from late Saturday into Sunday before winding down early Monday morning.  Expectations are high enough now to insert “significant” in terms of how much snowfall can occur in some areas.  What is not certain at this point in time?  Exact location and numerical values on the total amount of inches that can fall from this system.  What we are left with is the general statement that a significant snowfall will impact areas of the region on Sunday, but how much and exact locations are still to be determined.

Why am I, personally, able to have enough confidence to use significant snowfall in this post?  Well, here are the NAM, GFS, CMC, and Euro from 12Z Thursday.

NAM: 3-7″ of Snow with more still to come

NAMSNOWSUN

GFS: 4 to 10″ of Snow

GFSSNOWSUN

 

Canadian: 3 to 8″ of Snow

CMCSNOWSUN

 

European: 4 to 12″ of Snow

EUROSNOW

 

All of the main model output are suggestive of several inches of snow, with the threat of high snowfall totals in certain areas.  Even the National Weather Service out of Wilmington has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for this storm:

“DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.”

Bottom line is to check back with Ohio Valley Forecasting Center and other outlets for updates on this potential significant storm for the region.

 

Update on Freezing Rain For Thursday

#Update #FreezingRain #NAM #ThursdayMornning #Ohio

ZRAdvisory

 

Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM Thursday Morning

Here are a couple images of the evening North American Mesoscale Model at 12 km.

7 AM Thursday

NAM7AM

10 AM Thursday

NAM10AM

The NAM reflects the line of freezing rain tomorrow morning.  It will be light and it will be brief, but there will be a period where slick roads will affect travel tomorrow morning.  Stay focused and alert if out and about tomorrow morning.

 

 

Freezing Rain Advisory in Effect, Then Rain, Then Snow

#Thursday #FreezingRain #North #Rain #WarmSurge #Snow #Colder

ZRAdvisory

(Freezing Rain Advisory in Lavender from 4 AM to 11 AM Thursday morning)

A system coming out of the Plains will arrive early Thursday morning,  A warm front will slide through during the morning bringing with it a brief surge in temperatures; however, before the warm front moves through a period of light freezing rain can be expected.  It will not be a great amount, but a little ice can go a long way so if you are out in the pre-dawn hours into the morning rush use extra caution.  Temperatures will not fall that much tonight thanks to southerly winds, but before the warm front moves through temperatures will be hovering in the middle 20s to around 30.  Once the warm front passes, temperatures will rise steadily into the middle 30s to around 40.

briefsnow

(Brief Period of Light Snow Tomorrow Evening)

Farther south, precipitation should hold off until temperatures are above freezing so no icing is anticipated.  Rain will overspread the region from west to east as a cold front bears down on the area.  This is another quick warm spike that lasts 6 to 18 hours and then we cool right back down.  By late afternoon in the north and by early to mid evening in the south, rain will mix with and then change to snow before exiting the region.  Accumulations will be minimal at best, so more of a nuisance storm then anything else.

Colder weather returns for Friday and Saturday before eyes turn to Super Bowl Sunday and its impacts.  That storm is still in flux, but I do think the storm is a modest storm.  I do not see it being a major storm that cranks and pulls up to the area with warmer air, but I do think that light to moderate snowfall is a viable option at this point.

Disturbance Thursday, then Eyeing Sunday

#Cool #WarmSpike #Disturbance #Sunday #Snow #SuperBowl

While the upper Mid-Atlantic and New England deal with a raging Nor’easter over in our area we are dealing with cold temperatures but brightening skies.  Temperatures will hold mainly in the middle to upper 20s today crash into the lower to middle single digits tonight, and rise into the middle 20s to lower 30s tomorrow.  The next system will begin to take aim on the region starting late Wednesday night as a disturbance out of the Plains races towards the area.

(Thursday AM)

ThursAM

 

(Thursday PM)

ThursdayPM

Winds will flip to the south ushering in warmer air for another short period of time before the cold front passes by and the area chills back down again.  With the expectant low to track to the north, we should spike up into the upper 30s to middle 40s by early Thursday afternoon before falling back to near freezing by later in the day.  Precipitation could outrun the warmer air briefly Thursday morning to allow a brief period of snow and sleet for some before changing to rain.  Then, similar to Sunday, cold air will drain back in and the rain with gradually mix with and change to snow before ending by late Thursday evening.  Not much is expected from this event.

(GFS Sunday Afternoon)

GFSSunday

Colder and drier weather work in for Friday through Sunday morning before another winter storm with the potential for impressive moisture takes aim on the region.  Anticipation and excitement is already starting to circulate, but until late Thursday or Friday will a solid handle be made on likely track, moisture, and temperature regimes.  At this time, it very well could be another classic “Ohio Valley Dissection Storm”.  Snow in the northern regions, a mixed bag in the central regions, and rain across the south.  I have my eye on it, so check back for updates throughout the week and into the weekend.  Some places could indeed be enjoying a Snowy Super Bowl Sunday.

Quick Update and Snow Map for The System

#Rain #Snow #Timing #Accumulation #Ohio #Indiana

WWASunday

The National Weather Service in Wilmington did shift the Winter Weather Advisory South and East a notch which I felt they would do based on information  I saw.  This does not indicate much change, but a little more south where accumulations could reach near 3 inches.  However, and as stated several times now, once south of I-70 the confidence is very low on where that rain/snow line will be drawn and separate an inch from as much as three inches over a short distance.  Time will tell this afternoon and evening.  As we drop farther south in southeast Indiana and far southern Ohio, rain is the main feature until late this evening and then a changeover to a bit of snow will occur.  Little accumulation is expected in these areas.

Here is a rough outlined map that should be the expected accumulations for this event:

ClipperSunday

Small and subtle changes will likely occur, but not enough to change the general thinking since yesterday evening and this morning.

Rain will start but gradually change over to snow from northwest to southeast.  As one goes farther south, the rain/snow line will slow and creep only slowly southeast as low pressure traverses into central and south-central Kentucky.  By late tonight, the low is anticipated to be over east-central and southeastern Kentucky changing everyone over to snow.

Keep alert for updates through various media outlets today and tonight.

 

Clipper Set to Impact the Region Today

#Rain #Snow #Ohio #Indiana #Accumulation #Sunday

WWA

(Winter Weather Advisory in Purple)

The clipper is poised to affect the region from mid to late morning through early Monday morning for the central and northern parts of the Ohio Valley.  In the Winter Weather Advisory snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will be possible.  The best snowfall will occur 20 to 40 miles north of Interstate 70.  From this approximate point to the Interstate 70 corridor, a period of rain will begin before gradually mixing and changing to snow as the afternoon progresses.  Once in the southern third of Indiana and far southern Ohio, rain will continue into the evening before switching over by late evening.

LowAMMonday

(Low Placement Late Sunday Evening)

By late Sunday night and early Monday morning, the low will be positioned over south-central Kentucky allowing most areas to switch over to all snow.  As with any system, accumulations will vary depending on location.  Below is the National Weather Service map.

SnowfallMap

 

As discussed the last few days, Interstate 70 and points north will receive the most snowfall from this system but once into far southern Ohio and southern Indiana, the length of having all rain will hamper snowfall totals.  Personally, I believe everything should be shifted about 20 miles south but weather always changes so even into tomorrow subtle shifts will change in who sees what.

As promised here is the snowfall totals for major cities:

Indiana:

Indianapolis 1-3″, Terre Haute ~1″, Richmond 2-4″, Bloomington ~1″, Lafayette 3-5″, Fort Wayne 3-5″

Ohio:

Cincinnati ~1″, Hamilton 1-2″, Dayton 2-4″, Sidney 3-5″, Springfield 2-4″, Columbus 2-4″, Mansfield 3-5″, Zanesville 3-5″, Cleveland 2-3″

A sharp cutoff point once again will be in play.  It is entirely possible that over a 20 to 30 mile stretch, you can go from little to nothing to over 3 inches.  This is an aggregate range.  At the same time, please remember to note your location compared to the cities listed above to get a rough estimate of where you reside.  It is impossible to know how much will be in a certain town where you live, so use deductive logic to ascertain the approximate snow you will receive.

Be alert and stay abreast on the latest updates for this system today.

Clipper Approaching the Region Tomorrow

#Sunday #Snow #Accumulation #Ohio #Indiana

Cloudy weather and cold temperatures have settled into the region for Saturday as the eastern storm is handing out its punishment for the areas it is affecting.  Snow greeted a good chunk of the Blue Grass State, far southern and southeastern Ohio into West Virginia yesterday evening into early this morning with some decent accumulations, but now the focus turns to an aggressive clipper that will impact the region Sunday.

Low pressure over the Dakotas will ride southeast towards the middle and upper Ohio Valley tonight and influence our weather for the close of the weekend.   Thanks to high pressure to the north in the Quebec province and the influence of the eastern storm, the trend talked about the Clipper Low moving farther south on a west trajectory is ringing true.  What does this imply?  Colder temperatures, modest snowfall, and moderate accumulations.  While the exact track and true snowfall accumulations can still fluctuate a bit, the bottom line is that snow will overspread and blanket the region starting tomorrow morning in the west and overspread most areas north of the Ohio River by mid-afternoon.  Snow will continue into Sunday evening before wrapping up by early morning on the day Monday.

GFSAccum

(GFS Accumulations of around 1″ South to 4-5″ in the Northern and Central Sections)

NAMAccum

(NAM 4KM Accumulations of Dusting in the South to 2-3″ central, 4-6″ North)

WRFAccum

(WRF Very sharp cutoff from 0 in the south to 4-5″ in central and northern sections)

CMCAccum

(Canadian Shows near 1 inch south to as much as 6-7 inches in the central and northeastern reaches)

I will hold off on giving my accumulations until later this evening, but expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for the northern half of Indiana and the northern two-thirds of Ohio, at the minimum.  There is still some question for southern Indiana and far southern Ohio on the exact track of the low so Winter Weather Advisories could be held at bay; however, if the track slips a touch more south then expect a southern shift to be added.  All in all, the call for colder temperatures on Sunday leading to more snow thanks to a farther shift south and west with the low is in high confidence.

Enjoy the Snow!

Tune in Daily for A Detailed Forecast for the Whitewater Valley of Indiana and the Miami Valley of Ohio. When you need a forecast here, now, and right now