A brief respite in the dominant cold pattern will be greeting us for roughly 48 to 60 hours. The time frame is Saturday into early Monday. Energy over the western Plains will become more concentrated by Friday evening and start to deepen rapidly as it treks northeastward. As this storm intensifies, an aggressive warm front will move into the region leading to strong, southerly winds and a surge in the temperatures. At the same time, a strong cold front will be right on its heels. Placement of the low could spell the stage for a “triple point axis” in the area leading to the potential of thunderstorms becoming strong and even severe. These details can be cleared up as the time draws near.
(GFS- Winds at 5000 feet indicate winds in excess of 60 knots)
(European- Winds at 5000 feet indicate winds in excess of 60 knots)
Even without thunderstorms, winds will be of strong importance. Winds just above the surface will be screaming, so any mixing of these winds down to the surface could lead to some gusts as high as 55 mph. If I had to hazard a guess, anticipate a Wind Advisory to be in place on Sunday. By early Monday morning, that strong cold front should be poised to whip through our area switching winds back to the northwest and temperatures dropping throughout the day.
The big question then leads to “What will Thanksgiving be like, weather wise?” While a week out and a lot of action on the table before then, I believe it is going to be interesting. Right now, the ECMWF has a low tracking just to our south introducing the threat of snowfall for the area by mid to late day Thanksgiving. The GFS is quicker, usually is, and delivers light snow Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day, itself. That will be honed in on later, but it does appear that agreement of some “noise” will be bearing down on the region right before, during, or right after Thanksgiving. Definitely stay tuned as we get closer.