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Flooding Rainfall Likely

First things first, sorry for no posts the last few days. Adversity has struck me. I broke a tooth and pain has conquered me the last few days. The saying I would not wish this on my worst enemy rings true. It is brutal. At least at this time, ibuprofen and antibiotics are allowing me to at least function. John has been sick as well. So that is why it has been quiet on this end.

The main concern coming up for our area will be widespread heavy rainfall coming to the region. Our pattern is similar to an early Spring set up. Strong air mass differences, a maximized low-level jet, and the wide-open Gulf of Mexico. This will allow abundant moisture to stream into the area.

In the southern Plains, Gulf, and Tennessee Valley a rather impressive severe weather situation will set up. Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will likely occur in the most unstable air mass. The far southwestern Ohio Valley could get in on this Saturday. North of that line, soaking rain, and intermittent thunder will occur. And as always, to the west, another heavy snow/blizzard will occur.

Models vary with rain amounts, but anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain are likely for most with locally 6-inch amounts are possible under the best training and thunderstorm setups. I am pretty confident an extensive Flood Watch will be issued Thursday afternoon or Friday morning for much of the region.

Temperatures on Wednesday will feel like January. It will feel like March on Thursday, then April on Friday. Highs today will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s, mid-40s to mid-50s tomorrow and mid-50s to mid-60s on Friday. Some places Saturday, if they realize a dry slot (enhanced midlevel flow for severe weather) could touch 70. So we get a teasing day for winter today before going right back to Spring.

By late Saturday evening, a strong cold front will move through and bring an end to the rain and thunder and usher cooler air into the area for Sunday. So the end of the weekend will be the better day of the two. Monday looks dry but warmer weather and more rain will be back by late Monday evening and Tuesday. So where the heck is winter?

Around January 19-22, features appear to bring a strong reversal to the seemingly no winter pattern. Am I 100% confident, no, because I thought the transition would be Jan 10-20 but was 10 days too fast. So I will be cautious in saying too much. All I will say about this, many analog patterns and signals suggest a snap back to winter and frequent cold storms. Again, it is just analogs and does not mean it will be right, but there is enough data to at least keep winter enthusiasts hopeful that winter is not over.

For now, grab a boat and oars because it is going to rain and rain and rain, some more.

THE MODEL RUNS!

National Map Today, Relatively Quiet

National Map Today, Relatively Quiet

National Map Thursday, Storm Coming Together

Hydrological Outlook in Green across Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky Already Advising Residents to Prepare for Flooding

Hydrological Outlook in Green across Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky Already Advising Residents to Prepare for Flooding

Rainfall Estimates Through Sunday Evening

GFS

 GFS

Canadian

Canadian

European

European

The Temperature Roller Coaster

Cold Today

The Temperature Roller Coaster    Cold Today

Warner Thursday

Warner Thursday

Spring Like Friday

Spring Like Friday

Even Warner Saturday

Even Warner Saturday

STAY TUNED!

Josh & John

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MODEL DATA PROVIDED BY Pivotal Weather, NOAA & NWS

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!
THIS IS MODELING DATA USED BY US, EXPLAINED AND SHARED TO YOU.