Rinse, Repeat, Rinse, and Repeat
As the Summer Solstice approaches, one thing I look at in weather is how has the pattern been behaving. Well, it’s been windy and wet. Patterns like to lock themselves in around the solstice and that helps paint a picture for the weather to come.
SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Expect more of the same. Summer will likely be unsettled. Many days of hit and miss showers and storms. This leads to very humid conditions; however, thwart rampant heat. This does not mean we do not get brief hot spells or this summer is cool, it just means expect a pretty typical summer for the region.
The copious rainfall to our west will set up a boundary to fire off storms and with most of us being north enough, implies the threat for MCS or MCV development. Also, can never rule out a Derecho or two or three.
I like the “Ring of Fire” pattern for most of the area. We will be on the northern edge of a heat dome and that should pave the way for thunderstorms to develop between a cool pool boundary and the heat to the south. From time to time the heat dome will intensify and bring heat, but the fact the atmosphere is wet and unsettled should prevent most of the area from having a long term heat pattern this summer.
Starting Saturday through the following weekend mirrors the summer pattern. Daily threats of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, humid conditions, and temperatures during the day near to slightly below normal and nighttime lows above normal. The classic subtropical pattern for the region. Now it will not rain every day and very few days will be a washout. It simply means that morning heating will build clouds and by mid-afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms pop in the unstable air and can bring a round or two of wet weather. Things quiet down for the night and then do it again, tomorrow.
Josh & John
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